Conference nyoss1::market_investing

> The congress has the balanced budget half way to become
> law.  If it is signed by President, it should lower the
> interest rate.

	How will the budget lower the interest rate?  The Interest
	rates that you refer to are set by an independent agency.
	Congress can not force that agency to lower rates.  If the
	budget itself assumes lower interest rates in order to meet
	it's goal of being balanced then it's doomed to fail .......

	FWIW, I don't think the President will sign the Republicans budget.
	President has already said what he wants in the budget (less
	tax cuts for the rich) and recent polls show Americans favor the
	Presidents budget than the Republicans budget.

    Interest rates are set by the market, though the Fed can influence
    short-term rates via the discount rate and open market operations.
    
    In case you haven't noticed, interest rates have come down significantly
    in the past few months. The market believes \something/ will be done to
    curtail future spending, even though the particulars have yet to be
    ironed out.
    
    The market works on anticipation. People have been buying "cheap" bonds
    for some time now, expecting some fiscal reform. Don't look for further
    interest rate declines on that news, it's old hat.
    
      John

>     The market works on anticipation. People have been buying "cheap" bonds
>     for some time now, expecting some fiscal reform. Don't look for further
>     interest rate declines on that news, it's old hat.

	The NBR and W$W guests they have on seem to believe the lower
	interest rates and the bond rally are based not on expecting
	some fiscal reform from Congress, but on expecting the Fed
	to lower it's interest rate(s) (and when I say interest rates
	in the context of the Fed it's implied I mean those short-term
	rates the Fed does set [such as the interest banks charge
	each other for overnight loans] :-)).

	Some of these guests and/or analysts say the markets are in
	for a correction even if the Fed does lower rates because
	the markets have factored in that the Fed will be making
	a large cut (like 1.5 points?) and such a large cut is
	unlikely.

	Of course I'm just repeating what I've heard, it doesn't make
	any of it true (especially considering most of these guests
	were very bearish at the start of the year!!).

    re: .0
    
    The market has been breaking records and setting new all-time-high's.
    (30+ times so far this year?) Definitely it's reacting to something. 
    And like John had pointed out, long-term interest rates are dropping. 
    You must've missed something. 
    
    Now, I have a question for next year. A presidential election year
    usually is a uncertain year for the market. What do you people think
    the market will do in 1996? Do you anticipate an up year, down year or
    a boring year with alot of side-way moves? Do we have any statistics
    for the past presidential election years?
    
    Mike 

    
    RE: .4
    
    >Definitely it's reacting to something.
    >    And like John had pointed out, long-term interest rates are
    >dropping.    You must've missed something.
    
    I know it has dropped for some time, but it is reacting to the
    prospect of recession now(caused by the Fed raising rate last
    year).  I don't think the market is reaction to the effect of
    budget cut yet.  I don't think the Fed will cut rate next week
    because of budget cut in congress.  Fed is concern about the 
    recession now.
    
    Do you really think Fed will cut rate on July 5?  If it does, 
    the stock will fly even more.  I won't if I was in the Fed.
    By the way, the stock is up today.

> Do you really think Fed will cut rate on July 5?  If it does, 
> the stock will fly even more.  I won't if I was in the Fed.

	I wouldn't either at this point given what it will do to our
	already weak dollar ......

> By the way, the stock is up today.

	Which stock(s)?