Conference rdvax::grateful

re:             <<< Note 133.0 by ISLNDS::CLARK "Ask Dr. Science!" >>>

> Is it to your advantage to stay with door #1, or switch to door #2?

[insert Chong's voice:] 

 	I think you should take the reds man...

	;-)

re:             <<< Note 133.0 by ISLNDS::CLARK "Ask Dr. Science!" >>>

> Is it to your advantage to stay with door #1, or switch to door #2?

Statistics would dictate that since what is behind each door is independent of
what's behind the others, knowledge of what's behind door 3 would not benefit
you indetermining what's behind either door 1 or 2.  By this logic, I'd say
there is no answer, but then, if that was the case, there'd be no puzzle :-)

The answer must have to do with the sociology of goats, and since that class
was already full when I tried to register for it at school, I can only guess at
the answer.  I'll say the goats would want to be near each other (esp. if
they're of opposite sexes), so the other goat would be behind door 2, so I'd
stay with door 1 for the car.

adam

PS. either that, or the answer has something to do with escargot.

I neglected to mention (and now that I think of it, the column I read containing
this puzzle didn't mention it either, though I think it was implied ... hmm)
... when this game is played on the show, the host will not open the door that
the player originally selected.

Oh well, if I screw this puzzle up, at least it'll be interesting to talk about.
;^)

- Dave

Even though I did assume that the host did not open the door originally
selected, you sparked this thought in my brain:

If I picked door 1, and the car was behind door 1, wouldn't the host open door
1 and say "yes! you've just won a car!".  By not doing this, we implies that
the car is not behind door 1, and by showing the goat behind door 3, that means
the car is really behind door 2.

Then again, maybe the host is an a$$hole and would have gone to door 3
regardless of whether I picked the right door originally.

Still wondering about the escargot..

adam

re < Note 133.5 by KALI::SIEGEL "Osmosis to the rescue!" >

>If I picked door 1, and the car was behind door 1, wouldn't the host open door
>1 and say "yes! you've just won a car!".  By not doing this, we implies that
>the car is not behind door 1, and by showing the goat behind door 3, that means
>the car is really behind door 2.
>
>Then again, maybe the host is an a$$hole and would have gone to door 3
>regardless of whether I picked the right door originally.

The idea is that the host knows where the goats are, and opens the door to
one of them, then giving you a chance to switch.

- Dave

re < Note 133.4 by XCUSME::MACINTYRE >
                                  -< Switch >-

>    I think that you should switch since the odds of picking the car have
>    been reduced from 1 out of 3 to 1 out of 2.
    
Marv,

If the odds are 1 in 2, and there are two doors left, why not remain with
the door you originally picked?

- Dave

No no no Adam.  Bob Barker or whatever the dudes name was always opened
a dud first and then the grand prize.  If you chose the dud then he'd open
the runner-up type prize first.

In this case perhaps that would be the more congenial goat.  :-)

And another thing ;^)  what if the doors are on the perimeter of the room
each equidistant from the other.  Than the object behind door 1, goat or 
otherwise, is no closer to the object behind door 2 that that behind door 3.

:-)

but back to the question ... because there is the same 50% chance that the car
is behind either of the remaining two doors then it is no more or less
adventageous for the player to change his/her selection.

Lisa

re < Note 133.9 by XCUSME::MACINTYRE >

>    Well Dr. Science, 

I'll assume an implied smiley face accompanies that.  ;^)

Anyways, Marv's right.  

I realized I didn't word the question properly, and MY APOLOGIES to everyone,
and maybe I'll just bring in the original article and type it in.

Anyways, the answer is that statistically it is advantageous to always switch
rather than keep your original choice.  If you stick with your original choice,
you have a 1/3 chance to win.  If you switch, your chances are 1/2.

Here's a chart:

			you
	you	host	switch
prize	pick	opens	to	win?
1	1	2	3
1	1	3	2
1	2	3	1	yes
1	3	2	1	yes
2	1	3	2	yes
2	2	1	3
2	2	3	1
2	3	1	2	yes
3	1	2	3	yes
3	2	1	3	yes
3	3	1	2
3	3	2	1
count: 12
 wins: 6

Oh well, I tried.  ;^)

- Dave

re < Note 133.11 by XCUSME::MACINTYRE >


>    Thanks for the break.  Got any more?  I think my 13 year old has a 
>    book of riddles.  If so, I'll post some later.
    
Marv, could you post some riddles intended for children at a lower age level?
I think I'll find riddles for 13-year olds to be too much of a challenge.

- Dave

re:             <<< Note 133.10 by ISLNDS::CLARK "Ask Dr. Science!" >>>

> Anyways, Marv's right.  

> Anyways, the answer is that statistically it is advantageous to always switch
> rather than keep your original choice.  If you stick with your original choice,
> you have a 1/3 chance to win.  If you switch, your chances are 1/2.

Well I disagree with Marv and "Mr. Science"  (HAH! ;-).   A door you did not
pick is opened up, in this case door #3 which reveals a goat.

There's _remains_ a 50/50 chance that you picked the correct door.   
Changing your choice does not improve your chances of anything, it's still
50/50 at that point no matter which of the remaining doors is chosen.

> Is it to your advantage to stay with door #1, or switch to door #2?

Subjectively since Carol Merril is trying to get you to switch, I'd stay
with door # 1.

Ken

re < Note 133.13 by FURTHR::HANNAN "Beyond description..." >

>There's _remains_ a 50/50 chance that you picked the correct door.   
>Changing your choice does not improve your chances of anything, it's still
>50/50 at that point no matter which of the remaining doors is chosen.

That's why I believe I worded the question incorrectly.  The question is
not "will your chances improve if you switch doors, once the host reveals
a goat" ... the question is more like "is it to your advantage to choose to
switch doors (once given that offer), rather than remaining with your original
choice?" 

It is, because if you choose to remain with your original choice, your chances,
within the entire game, of getting the car are 1/3.  If you choose to change
from the door selected to the other door not opened by the host, your chances
of getting the car are 1/2.

- Dave

Any ever do these word pictures, when you are given a configuration of words 
that make up a saying or phrase??  Let me give an example:

			0
		  --------------
		       MD
		       PHD
		       MBA

Answer behind a form feed:




Three degrees below zero.


Here's another:
		
		
		
	    ROCKCAUGHTHARDPLACE

Answer:



Caught between a rock and a hard place.


I'll bet some of the creative minds in here can come up with some good ones.

Scott

Here's another, a little more difficult:


		TSHKEECLLEOTSOENTS

re < Note 133.16 by MR4DEC::WENTZELL "HeartlessPowersTellUsWhatToThink" >

>		TSHKEECLLEOTSOENTS

Skeletons in the closet!

    
    
    
    What's the next letter in this sequence:
    
    
              TTFFSS
    
    
    
    stu
    
    

    
    
    		EE ??
    
    				da ve

    
    letter ( singular )
    
    
    
    stu
    
    
    

    fine!  be that way!  :^) :^) :^)
    
    			E ?
    
    					da ve

    
    
    'E' is correct.
    
    
       Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight
    
    
    
    stu
    
    
    

Ok, I'll try a few more:

         A
1.      B L
       E   L
        S B
         A

      R 
2.   ROAD
      A
      D


3.   MIRROR x2
       WALL


4.  T I M E
     R U N


5.  NOTBADNOTEMPTYNOTALIVE


6.  T
    O
    U
    C
    H


7.  BUHECKLLET


    ---------
8.  | jack  |
    ---------

9.  TJIUMSET


10.  STANDING
       MOON

11.  LETMEPYOUUTMYARMS


           N
          O
         O
        M
       D
      A
12.  B



       IR     IR     IR
13.   C  C   C  C   C  C
       SU     SU     SU


14.   W
      E
      R
      C
      S

      RRRRR     I  V   V  EEEEEE  RRRRR
      R    R    I  V   V  E       R    R
15.   RRRRR	I  V   V  EEEE    RRRRR
      R    R	I  V   V  E       R    R
      R     R	I   V V   E       R     R
      R      R	I    V    EEEEEE  R      R 


16.     B
        L
        A
        Z
        E
      BIGHILL


           O
        O  A
17.    WATER
        R

re:             <<< Note 133.14 by ISLNDS::CLARK "Ask Dr. Science!" >>>

I don't know about that Dave... I'm still not convinced.

> That's why I believe I worded the question incorrectly.  The question is
> not "will your chances improve if you switch doors, once the host reveals
> a goat" ... the question is more like "is it to your advantage to choose to
> switch doors (once given that offer), rather than remaining with your original
> choice?" 

But the rephrased question has not eliminated a door.  There are 3 doors to
choose from, and your chances are still 1/3.   If one is opened, and it is not
the one you chose (and it contains a goat ;-), then your chances automatically 
improve to 1/2.  Still doesn't matter what you choose.

However, I've always hated probability and did lousy in it in college, so you
may be right ;-)

Ken

NOTBADNOTEMPTYNOTALIVE = GRATEFUL DEAD!!!

NOTBAD = GREAT (Grate)
NOTEMPTY = FULL (ful)
NOTALIVE = DEAD (Dead)

Very creative!

adam

re < Note 133.25 by FURTHR::HANNAN "Beyond description..." >

>There are 3 doors to
>choose from, and your chances are still 1/3.   If one is opened, and it is not
>the one you chose (and it contains a goat ;-), then your chances automatically 
>improve to 1/2.  Still doesn't matter what you choose.

I think the catch is that we're talking about your overall odds through a
successive number of games, not one game.  It's been a long time since my (only)
statistics course, so someone else can probably phrase this better.

If you always stick with the door you've originally selected, your odds of
winning are x/3 out of x games.  *You will only win if the prize is behind the
door you've selected.*  There are nine possible situations (prize behind door
#x, you pick door #y), of which you win in three, so the odds are 1/3.

If you always switch to the door not opened, your odds of winning are x/2 out of
x games.  If you chose door #1 originally, the host opens door #3, and the prize
is behind door #3, you win.  If the host opens door #2, the prize would have
to be behind door #3, and you win again.  *The only time you lose is when the
prize is behind the door you originally picked* - in the example, door #1.
There are twelve possible combinations (prize behind door #x, host opens door
#y, you switch to door #z), remembering that the host won't open the door you
originally picked and that he will open a losing door.  You win in six of these
situations, so the odds are 1/2.

- phew;
  Dave ;^)

    More guesses on the words...
    
1. Baseball Diamond
2. Crossroads
3. Mirror, mirror on the Wall
4. Time overrun (Run Undertime?)
5. Grateful Dead (I never would have gotten this one)
6. Touchdown
7. Hell in a Bucket
8. Jack in a box
9. Just in Time
10. Standing on the Moon
11. Let me put my arms around you
12. Bad moon rising
13. 3 ring circus
14. Screw up
15. Big River
16.     B
        L
        A
        Z
        E
      BIGHILL


           O
        O  A
17.    WATER
        R

    

    17. both oars in the water
    

    16. fire on the mountain
    

>4. Time overrun (Run Undertime?)

    
This is the only one not gotten yet, it might be a stretch though.

Scott

4.  T I M E
     R U N


The answer behind a FF




Run out of time

You may have seen these before but . . .

Each question below contains the initials of words that will make it
possible to find the missing words.  For Example:  26 = L of the A
would be 26 = Letters of the Alphabet.  There is no time limit on the 
test.  Very few people can answer half of the questions.

 1.  26 = L of the A ________________________________________________

 2.  7 = D of the W _________________________________________________

 3.  1001 = A N _____________________________________________________

 4.  12 = S of the Z ________________________________________________

 5.  53 = C in a D (with the J) _____________________________________

 6.  9 = P in the S S _______________________________________________

 7.  88 = P K _______________________________________________________

 8.  13 = S on the A F ______________________________________________

 9.  32 Degrees = D F at which W F __________________________________

10.  18 = H on the G C ______________________________________________

11.  90 Degrees = D in a R A ________________________________________

12.  200 = D for P G in M ___________________________________________

13.  8 = S on a SS __________________________________________________

14.  3 = B M (S H T R) ______________________________________________

15.  4 = Q in a G ___________________________________________________

16.  24 = H in a D __________________________________________________

17.  1 = W on a U ___________________________________________________

18.  5 = D in a Z C _________________________________________________

19.  57 = H V _______________________________________________________

20.  11 = P on a F T ________________________________________________

21.  1000 = W that a P is W _________________________________________

22.  29 = D in F in a L Y ___________________________________________

23.  64 = S on a CB _________________________________________________

24.  40 = D and N of the G F ________________________________________

25.  13 = B D _______________________________________________________

Scoring:

23 - 24  Psychic           9 - 12  Average          3 - 4  Imbecile
20 - 22  Genius            7 - 8   Below Average    1 - 2  Idiot
17 - 19  Superior          5 - 6   Moron            0      Illiterate
13 - 16  Above Average
    

    
    
 1.  26 letter of the alphabet
 2.  7 days of the week
 3.  1001 Arabian Nights
 4.  12 signs of the zodiac
 5.  53 cards in a deck with the joker
 6.  9 planets in the solar system
 7.  88 piano keys
 8.  13 stripes on the American flag
 9.  32 Degrees fahrenheit at which water freezes
 10. 18 = H on the G C ______________________________________________
 11. 90 Degrees in a right angle
 12. 200 = D for P G in M ___________________________________________
 13.  8 = S on a SS __________________________________________________
 14.  3 = B M (S H T R) ______________________________________________
 15.  4 quarts in a gallon
 16.  24 hours in a day
 17.  1 = W on a U ___________________________________________________
 18.  5 = D in a Z C _________________________________________________
 19.  57 Heinz varieties
 20.  11 = P on a F T ________________________________________________
 21.  1000 = W that a P is W _________________________________________
 22.  29 days in February in a leap year
 23.  64 = S on a CB _________________________________________________
 24.  40 days and nights of the Great Flood
 25.  13 = B D _______________________________________________________

    
 13.  Sides on a Stop Sign
 17.  Wheels on a Unicycle

 1.  26 = L of the A ________________________________________________
	letters of the alphabet
 2.  7 = D of the W _________________________________________________
	days of the week	
 3.  1001 = A N _____________________________________________________
	arabian nights
 4.  12 = S of the Z ________________________________________________
	signs of the zodiac	
 5.  53 = C in a D (with the J) _____________________________________
	cards in a deck, with the joker
 6.  9 = P in the S S _______________________________________________
	planets in the solar system	
 7.  88 = P K _______________________________________________________
	piano keys
 8.  13 = S on the A F ______________________________________________
	stripes on the american flag
 9.  32 Degrees = D F at which W F __________________________________
	degrees farenheit at which water freezes
10.  18 = H on the G C ______________________________________________
	holes on the golf course
11.  90 Degrees = D in a R A ________________________________________
	degrees in a right angle
12.  200 = D for P G in M ___________________________________________
	dollars for passing "go" in monopoly
13.  8 = S on a SS __________________________________________________

14.  3 = B M (S H T R) ______________________________________________

15.  4 = Q in a G ___________________________________________________
	quarts in a gallon
16.  24 = H in a D __________________________________________________
	hours in a day
17.  1 = W on a U ___________________________________________________

18.  5 = D in a Z C _________________________________________________
	digits in a zip code
19.  57 = H V _______________________________________________________
	heinz' varieties
20.  11 = P on a F T ________________________________________________
	players on a football team	
21.  1000 = W that a P is W _________________________________________

22.  29 = D in F in a L Y ___________________________________________
	days in february in a leap year
23.  64 = S on a CB _________________________________________________

24.  40 = D and N of the G F ________________________________________
	days and nights of the great flood
25.  13 = B D _______________________________________________________

We went through this in the past.  I was able to get most of these.  Here are
most of the ones Phyllis didn't get.

After the form feed:
    
    
 10. 18 Holes on the golf course
 12. 200 = D for P G in M ___________________________________________
 13.  8 sides on a stop sign
 14.  3 Blind Mice (See How They Run)
 17.  1 wheel on a unicycle
 18.  5 digits in a zip code
 20.  11 players on a football team
 21.  1000 words that a picture is worth
 23.  64 squares on a checkerboard
 25.  13 in a baker's dozen

I admit I got #18 after scanning the "Z" words in the dictionary!

I'm stumped on #12!!

adam

Tom got #12!!

congrats, we did it.

re < Note 133.38 by KALI::SIEGEL "Osmosis to the rescue!" >

>I admit I got #18 after scanning the "Z" words in the dictionary!

Adam, you left-brainer, you!

- Dave

    

 10. 18 Hole on the Golf Course

 25. 13 in a Baker's Dozen

Isn't 11 the number of digits on an amplifier's volume knob?

- Dave

So I'm a little slow, sue me!  ;^)  8^>

       <<< Note 133.36 by ISLNDS::CLARK "politicians throwing stones" >>>
                                -< couple more >-

    
 13.  Sides on a Stop Sign
 17.  Wheels on a Unicycle

10. 18 = holes on a golf course
25. 13 = bad day

Geoff

    Guess I don't have to print the answers, you guys are just too smart,
    however, did you add your own personal scores up? ;-)
    
    --Cathleen

    a postal address:
    
    	WOOD	AND
    	JOHN	MASS
    

{headers removed}

                              Final Exam

                            Christmas Songs

 The following words are alternate titles for several well-known
 Christmas carols.  Fill in the proper title in the space provided.
 100% correct assures you of a full Christmas stocking.

    1.  Quadruped With Crimson Proboscis

    2.  Eight P.M. to Six A.M. Without Noise

    3.  Miniscule Hamlet in the Near East

    4.  Ancient Benevolent Despot

    5.  Adorn the Vestibule

    6.  Exuberance Directed in the Planet

    7.  Listen, Aerial Spirits Announcing

    8.  Trio of Monarchs

    9.  Yonder in the Hay Stack

   10.  Cherubim Audited from Aloft

   11.  Assemble, Everyone Who Believes

   12.  Hallowed Post Meridian

   13.  Fantasies of a Colorless December 25th

   14.  Tin Tintinnabulations

   15.  A Dozen 24 Hour Yule Periods

   16.  Befell During the Transparent Bewitching Hour

   17.  Homo Sapien of Crystallized Vapor

   18.  Desire a Pair of Incisors on December 25th

   19.  I Spied My Maternal Parent Osculating

   20.  Perambulating Through a December Solstice Fantasy

    >> 1.  Quadruped With Crimson Proboscis

    Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer
    
    >> 2.  Eight P.M. to Six A.M. Without Noise

    Silent Night
    
    >> 3.  Miniscule Hamlet in the Near East

    Oh Little Town of Bethlehem
    
    >> 4.  Ancient Benevolent Despot

    The Good King Wenslis
    
    >> 5.  Adorn the Vestibule

    Deck the Halls
    
    >> 6.  Exuberance Directed in the Planet

    Joy to the World
    
    >> 9.  Yonder in the Hay Stack

    Away in the Manger
    
    >> 11.  Assemble, Everyone Who Believes

    Oh Come All Ye Faithful
    
    >> 13.  Fantasies of a Colorless December 25th

    I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas
   
    >> 15.  A Dozen 24 Hour Yule Periods

    The Twelve Days of Christmas
    
    >>17.  Homo Sapien of Crystallized Vapor

    Frosty the Snowman
    
    >>18.  Desire a Pair of Incisors on December 25th

    All I want for Christmas is my Two Front Teeth
    
    >> 19.  I Spied My Maternal Parent Osculating

    I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus
    
    >> 20.  Perambulating Through a December Solstice Fantasy

    Walking in a Winter Wonderland
    

            <<< Note 133.48 by VMPIRE::CLARK "sleep in the stars" >>>

{headers removed}

                              Final Exam

                            Christmas Songs

 The following words are alternate titles for several well-known
 Christmas carols.  Fill in the proper title in the space provided.
 100% correct assures you of a full Christmas stocking.

    1.  Quadruped With Crimson Proboscis
        rudolph the red-nosed reindeer

    2.  Eight P.M. to Six A.M. Without Noise
        Silent Night

    3.  Miniscule Hamlet in the Near East
        O' little town of Bethleham

    4.  Ancient Benevolent Despot
        Old St Nick

    5.  Adorn the Vestibule
        Deck the halls

    6.  Exuberance Directed in the Planet
        Joy to the World

    7.  Listen, Aerial Spirits Announcing
        Hark ye hearlded angels sing
    
    8.  Trio of Monarchs
        These three kings of orient are

    9.  Yonder in the Hay Stack
        Away in the manager

   10.  Cherubim Audited from Aloft
             

   11.  Assemble, Everyone Who Believes
        O come all ye faithfull

   12.  Hallowed Post Meridian
        O holy night        

   13.  Fantasies of a Colorless December 25th
        Dreaming of a white christmas

   14.  Tin Tintinnabulations


   15.  A Dozen 24 Hour Yule Periods
        The Twelve days of Christmas

   16.  Befell During the Transparent Bewitching Hour
        It came upon a midnite clear

   17.  Homo Sapien of Crystallized Vapor
        Frosty the snowman

   18.  Desire a Pair of Incisors on December 25th
        All I wish for christmas is my two front teeth

   19.  I Spied My Maternal Parent Osculating
        I saw mommy kissing santa claus

   20.  Perambulating Through a December Solstice Fantasy
          Walking in a winter wonder land

    I think the two missing ones are...
    
   10.  Cherubim Audited from Aloft

	Angels We have heard on High

   14.  Tin Tintinnabulations

	Silver Bells?

re:     <<< Note 133.51 by ESGWST::MIRASSOU "So... what DOES it all mean?" >>>
                                 -< last two? >-

    I think the two missing ones are...
    
   10.  Cherubim Audited from Aloft

	Angels We have heard on High

  >> 14.  Tin Tintinnabulations

  >>	Silver Bells?


  DUHHH How did I miss that one? 8-{