Conference hydra::dejavu

    This is the first part of my analysis of predictions GMS made
    between Octobers 1991 and 1992.  Please note that dates
    (unless otherwise noted) are generally for 1992.
    
    As I said in .0, this is really an analysis of the analysis
    performed by the good folks of the Matrix Institute (GMS's
    "corporate" identity).  It does not include analysis of any
    predictions that might not have been included in their
    analysis (and I believe some of those exist).
    
The analysis they performed lists a quantity of predictions, organized
by topic, and, within topic, by a success ranking: hit, partial hit
(meaning only some of a set of predicted events happened), possible
hit (success is dependent on interpretation of the data), miss, and
"insufficient data."

Notes on Format
  o Numbers are those given to the predictions in the summary
  o "Summary" is what is written in the summary
  o "Event" is a description of the matching event
  o "Original" is what originally appeared in the ECR

Geophysical Predictions

1. First LA Quake (HIT)
   Summary says: "50% chance of occurring between April 17 and 22."
   Event was: April 22, 6.1 quake in Desert Hot Springs
   Original (April 92) says: In addition to the part written in the summary,
    "Magnitude: A 'Mega-Quake,' it would level large parts of the Greater
    Los Angeles area, flood a large area with ocean water, and cause damage
    as far away as San Diego and San Francisco [...]"

   Mark says: This is a MISS.  The only thing right is the date, and the
    general location.  (I assume when GMS says "Los Angeles," he really
    means "southern California."  Otherwise, he's really pushing his luck.)

2. Multiple CA earthquakes (HIT)
   Summary says: "May 8-July 13, 1992 Multiple CA Earthquakes --
    many reaching 6 range -- Los Angeles area.  Epicenter 120-150
    miles east-southeast of LA, magnitude near 7.6"
   Event was: June 28, 7.6, 130 miles east of LA (Landers quake).
   Original (May 92) says: "Multiple earthquakes hit CA -- many reaching
    magnitudes in the 6-8 range -- Los Angeles, Eureka, San Diego, San
    Francisco, Bakersfield, and the Sonoma area."

   Mark says:  This HIT does not count.  See #3.

3. Multiple CA earthquakes (HIT)
   Summary says: What original for #2 says.
   Events were: Eureka, 4.9, June 5, Bakersfield, 4.1, July 13,
    "Southern California/LA" [Landers], 7.6, June 28, Big Bear Lake,
    6.1, June 28, many (3000+) small aftershocks.
   Original says: What original for #2 says.

   Mark says: Note that Mr. Scallion is trying to get two hits out of
    one prediction.  (This is dishonest.)  Given that he is straining
    (using magnitude 4 quakes, which are not that uncommon in CA), I
    give this a PARTIAL HIT.

4. Land Separates (HIT)
   Summary says: "May 8,1992-May 8,1993: Sections of land along fracture
    from Eureka to Baja separate. Gaps occur along this line from several
    feet to several hundreds of feet."
   Event was: Landers quake.  Reported fracture size was inches to feet,
    not feet to hundreds of feet.
   Original (listed as June 92, was in May 92) says:  After summary text:
    "Fire leaps into the atmosphere as gases caused by electromagnetic
    forces ignite from fallen electric lines.  The flames, blue-red in
    color, will be seen for hundreds of miles as the reach heights of
    100 feet or more. [flooding, much coastal damage, insurance collapse,
    US economy collapse]"

   Mark says: This is a MISS.  No credit for being off by an order of
    magnitude, and wrong on all kinds of other details.

5. Northeast US quakes (HIT)
   Summary says: "Connecticut, Long Island, and other NE states will
    experience low-magnitude quakes before summer [1992]."
   Events were: S. CT/E. LI, 2.8, March 10, VT/NH, 2.8, March 23
   Original (March 92) says: Pretty much what the summary says.

   Mark says: Not terribly unusual, but I'll give it a HIT.

6. South American quakes (HIT)
   Summary says: "South America devastated by several quakes, many in
    the 9+ range."
   Events were: Nicaragua-Costa Rica, 7.2, September 2, Colombia,
    6.6, October 17 and 7.2, October 18.
   Original (December 91) says: (I only got the '92 issues.)

   Mark says: New math (7.2 is "in the 9+ range"?), not to mention
    some new geography (Nicaragua .ne. South America).  I give a MISS.

7. Cascades volcanoes (HIT)
   Summary says: "[...] Cascades, Alaska -- should be watched in August
    for (volcanic) activity."
   Event was: Mt Spurr eruption, August 18.
   Original (August 92) says: "The areas to be watched now are the
    Cascades, Alaska -- should be watched in August for activity --
    the Pacific region around the Hawaiian Islands and Antarctica. [sic]
    I believe we will see the birth of some new volcanoes in these areas.
    There will also be increased activity in South America, and in Mexico,
    in the regions west of Mexico City, there will be increased volcanic
    activity."

   Mark says:  This prediction is written in such a way that a HIT may given
    if there is volcanic activity in any of six different places.  Hawaii
    (Kilauea) has been continuously active, with no notable new activity.
    Other than Mt. Spurr, I've not heard of any significant volcanic activity
    in those areas at that time.  Accordingly, I give this a PARTIAL HIT.

    [Further note:  If one treats them all as separate predictions, why are
     they not listed separately in the year-end analysis?]

8-22. All MISSES.

[The following two predictions were for events that post-date the
 date of the analysis.  Since their time (May 9) has passed, I
 include them as MISSES.]

23. Big LA Quake (MISS)
  Los Angeles completely broken up in 92-93 (12/91)
24. Related Quakes (MISS)
  San Francisco, San Diego, Missouri have quakes at the same time (as #23).

			Mark		GMS
Predictions		23		24
Hits			1		7
Partial Hits		2		0
Possible Hits		0		0
Misses			20		17

This is the second installment of my analysis of Gordon-Michael Scallion's
1992-predicted events.  More correctly, it is an analysis of his analysis
of these predictions.  As such, it does not comment on predictions omitted
from that analysis.

Notes on Format
  o Numbers are those given to the predictions in the summary
  o "Summary" is what is written in the summary
  o "Event" is a description of the matching event
  o "Original" is what originally appeared in the ECR

Weather Predictions

25. El Nino (HIT)
   Summary says: El Nino Returns.
   Event was: It did.
   Original (December 91) says: (I did not get that issue)

   Mark says:  El Nino returns every 2 to 7 years.  This is like predicting
    weather.  An unexceptional HIT.

26. Winter starts mild, gets severe (HIT)
   Summary says: "[The 91-92] winter would start off milder than normal
    and then change to colder and windier than normal."
   Event was: The 91-92 winter did start off mild.  In March and April
    92, the Eastern US was unseasonably cold.
   Original (January 92) says: In addition to summary, "I fully expect
    January and February to be very windy, especially around the Great
    Lakes Region of the US and Canada, as well as severe frosts in
    Florida, and southern California and the Imperial Valley."

   Mark says: Since when is March/April the same as January/February?
    Since when is the Eastern US the Great Lakes Region?  A MISS.

27. Wet wetter, dry drier (HIT)
   Summary says: "[...] flooding in many US areas in Spring -- and where it
    has been dry, it will be dryer."
   Event was: Northeast was cold, Pacific NW was hot and dry.
   Original (February 92) says: much the same.

   Mark says: What does the event have to do with the prediction?  What
    about flooding?  I think he was off by a year. :-)  A MISS.

28. US flooding (HIT)
   Summary says: "More flooding in US primarily below 35 N latitude."
   Event was: Southern Cal., New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas,
    Alabama, Georgia, and Florida all had heavy flooding.
   Original (March 92) says: much the same

   Mark says:  I don't recall such widespread major flooding last spring.
    Certainly not Mississippi-level.  I give a HIT.

29. High winds (HIT)
  Summary says: "More (high winds), especially in the Great Lakes, New
   England, upper New York state, Texas, and much of the Midwest."
  Event was: "In May thunderstorms and damaging winds struck Minnesota,
   upstate New York, Texas, and the Midwest; in July severe windstorms struck
   Michigan, upstate New York, and the Midwest.  1992 was a record year for
   tornadoes."
  Original (February 92) says: much the same

  Mark says: So how much damage was done?  A HIT, but how unusual is this?

30. Harsh winter (HIT)
  Summary says: "This will be a very harsh winter, coming earlier...
   particularly in the region of the Great Lakes ... November and December"
  Event was: November and December were pretty bad, weather-wise.
  Original (November 92) says: (I didn't get this issue)

  Mark says:  Weather forecasters said this too (result of Pinatubo
   eruption).  Therefore, this prediction does not count.

31. Global weather (HIT)
  Summary says: "Global weather patterns increase."
  Events were: Most of the weathers described above.  Reference to El Nino
   and effect of Pinatubo, and weather on other continents.
  Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get this issue)

  Mark says: What's a weather "increase"?  There's "more" weather?  The
   weather was certainly different, but the main cause (Pinatubo) was
   well known before this prediction.  Therefore, it does not count.

32. Year of the Winds (HIT)
  Summary says: "'92 to be know as 'Year of the Winds'"
  Event was:  Record tornado year (50% above average, slightly more than
   previous years).
  Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get this issue)

  Mark says:  Well, a windy year, but nobody's given it that name.  I'll
   give him a HIT anyway.

33. Midwest winds and drought (PARTIAL HIT)
  Summary says: "Midwest hard-hit by winds and drought."
  Event was: Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois were briefly droughted.
   GMS says "half-hit, half-miss."
  Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get this issue)

  Mark says: 1/4 hit, 3/4 miss, and over a small section of the described
   area, to boot.  A MISS.

Running total (including previous notes):

			Mark		GMS
Predictions		30		33
Hits			5		15
Partial Hits		2		1
Possible Hits		0		0
Misses			23		17

This is the third installment of my analysis of Gordon-Michael Scallion's
1992-predicted events.  More correctly, it is an analysis of his analysis
of these predictions.  As such, it does not comment on predictions omitted
from that analysis.

Notes on Format
  o Numbers are those given to the predictions in the summary
  o "Summary" is what is written in the summary
  o "Event" is a description of the matching event
  o "Original" is what originally appeared in the ECR

Environmental Predictions

34. Ozone hole grows (HIT)
   Summary says: "Ozone hole expands another 2%."
   Event was: Ozone hole expanded by 15%.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: GMS commented "some might consider this an underhit."
    He's right.  Being off by about one order of magnitude is pretty bad.
    A MISS.

35. Ozone hole grows II (HIT)
   Summary says: "Because of debris from Mt. Pinatubo ... the ozone hole will
    increase in size."
   Event was: The World Meteorological Organization confirms the severity of
    ozone depletion was probably caused by Pinatubo.
   Original (October 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says:  I bet lots of experts could figure this out.  No prediction.

36. Volcanic Debris (POSSIBLE HIT)
   Summary says: "Volcanic debris covers 50% if the Earth's atmosphere."
   Event was: It covered 100%.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says:  Another one for the experts.  No prediction.

37-39. MISSES.  (GMS claims INSUFFICIENT DATA, but there is no
   POSITIVE evidence for any of them.)

Economic Predictions

40. Nikkei Levels (HIT)
   Summary says: "Expect to see the Japanese Nikkei market to begin its
    leveling in February/March."
   Event was: March 16, Nikkei hits bottom.
   Original (February 92) says: (in entirety!) "I continue to see a leveling
    in the stock market this spring. Gold and silver increase in value and
    art and other collectables continue the current downtrend. Unemployment
    continues growing, housing to improve slightly, CD rates to begin to rise
    as T-Bills stay flat."

   Mark says: The summarized "prediction" does not exist.  Another example
    of dishonesty.  Unless he's marketing ECR to the Japanese.

41. Cottage Industry (HIT)
   Summary says: "An incredible increase in cottage industry."
   Event was: CNN says cottage industry grew at "unprecedented rate."
   Original (November 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: *Anybody* could've made this "prediction."  No credit.

42. Electric Car (HIT)
   Summary says: "The electric car attached to the fuel-cell system is to be
    ... by the spring."
   Event was: April 1992, Sanyo electric introduces car powered in part by
    fuel cell.
   Original (April!!! 1992) says: much the same

   Mark says: All he needed was a connection, or to make inquiries with
    the maker right before his publishing deadline.  No prediction.

43. US Unemployment (HIT)
   Summary says: "US unemployment hits 10% nationally."
   Event was: Official US Labor Department statistics did not exceed 7.8%.
    GMS cites a _Harper's_ estimate, that counts people the official
    stats don't, as placing the *real* rate around 12.7%.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says:  See what you get when someone makes a vague prediction?
    Find the statistic to satisfy it!  Any reasonable person would assume
    he meant the official statistic.  I give it a MISS.

44. Recession -> Depression (HIT)
   Summary says: "Recession continues and moves to depression."
   Event was: GMS cites _Barron's_ and others in support of this
    prediction.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: Once again, a vague prediction.  While we are arguably in
    a depression, there is clearly disagreement.  I say INSUFFICIENT DATA.

45. Deflation (HIT)
   Summary says: "Deflation hits the US." (Ouch! :-)
   Event was: GMS says experts proclaim "pockets of deflation," mainly due
    to drop in commercial RE prices and raw materials.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: Yet another vague prediction.  INSUFFICIENT DATA.

46. Banking Troubles (HIT)
   Summary says: "A second banking bailout begins."
   Event was: FDIC known to be in financial trouble.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says:  This was fairly common knowledge.  No prediction.

47. Insurance Collapse (POSSIBLE HIT)
   Summary says: "Insurance industry begins to collapse due to high claims
    and an inability to collect premiums."
   Event was: Signs if weakness in industry.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: Since no collapse seems to have happened, I give a MISS.

48-49. MISSES.

Running total (including previous notes):

			Mark		GMS
Predictions		40		49
Hits			5		24
Partial Hits		2		1
Possible Hits		0		2
Misses			31		19
Insufficient data	2		3
                 

This is the last installment of my analysis of Gordon-Michael Scallion's
1992-predicted events.  More correctly, it is an analysis of his analysis
of these predictions.  As such, it does not comment on predictions omitted
from that analysis.

Notes on Format
  o Numbers are those given to the predictions in the summary
  o "Summary" is what is written in the summary
  o "Event" is a description of the matching event
  o "Original" is what originally appeared in the ECR

Political/Social Predictions

50. Russia (HIT)
   Summary says: "Russia has riots and a limited civil war."
   Events were: Riots, ethnic fighting.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get this issue)

   Mark says: This is unexpected?  No prediction.

51. Banking scandal (HIT)
   Summary says: "Another scandal coming in the banking industry."
   Event was: Bank loans to Iraq scandal.
   Original (October 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says:  Given what was known about the banking industry, *some*
    scandal was hardly surprising.  No prediction.

52. Middle East War (HIT)
   Summary says: "...war will once again break out in Iraq in October-
    December...more of an air war designed to force Sadaam [sic] into
    compliance."
   Event was: US fighters shooting at things in Iraq.
   Original (October 92) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: I'd really like to see the full quote.  On the basis of
    the supplied quote, nothing unusual is being predicted.  (Not much
    that's happened in Iraq has surprised me.)  No prediction.

53. US Tax Revolt (POSSIBLE HIT)
   Summary says: "Tax revolt begins as States and US Federal Gov't attempt
    to raise taxes."
   Event: GMS cites tax-activist organizations in support of this.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: Another fairly vague prediction.  People constantly revolt
    against taxes.  No prediction, says I (or INSUFFICIENT DATA).

54. Spiritual Communities (POSSIBLE HIT)
   Summary says: "Spiritual communities begin forming around the globe.
    Many link up via communication networks."
   Event was: GMS cites references about the growth of "spiritual
    communities."
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says:  So, they're coming to the Internet.  So is everyone else.
    And if they're *beginning* to form, why where there some before?
    GMS cites "renewed interest" in forming "intentional communities."
    How much?  I say this is no prediction.

55. Education Reform (POSSIBLE HIT)
   Summary says: "National movement forms to restructure education in the
    US, parent-teacher guided."
   Event was: GMS does not provide the name of a "national movement," citing
    only local reform movements.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: No national movement.  Sorry, GMS.  You MISSED.

56-60. MISSES.

Health/Medical Predictions

61. Seven Plagues (HIT)
   Summary says: "The third of the 'Seven Plagues of the Nineties' begins
    and attacks the respiratory system."
   Event was: Advent of drug-resistant TB.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: I'd like to see the original.  What was the second (assuming
    AIDS is number 1)?  This was also widely reported not long after the
    issue came out.  It's probably been in the medical press longer.
    For that reason, no prediction.

62. AIDS (HIT)
   Summary says: "New strain of AIDS discovered."
   Event was: people with AIDS-like symptoms, no HIV.  People with HIV
    but not very symptomatic.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: It is fairly well known that HIV mutates rapidly.
    No prediction.

63-64. MISSES.  GMS claims INSUFFICIENT DATA, but, again, there is no
   *positive* evidence.

Phenomena Predictions

65. Crop Circles (POSSIBLE HIT)
   Summary says: "Crop circles intensify.  Lights will be seen emanating
    from them on all continents."
   Events were: GMS waffles on definition of "intensify."
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: No prediction.  Get definitions down *before* predicting,
    Gordon.

66. Apparitions (POSSIBLE HIT)
   Summary says: "Apparitions of saints and spiritual masters begin appearing
    to many on all continents [...]"
   Events were: No objective evidence.
   Original (December 91) says: (I didn't get that issue)

   Mark says: Sorry, Charlie.  You MISSED.

67. Psychic Powers (INSUFFICIENT DATA)

68. Massive UFO Sightings (MISS)

Running total (including previous notes):

			Mark		GMS
Predictions		51		68
Hits			5		29
Partial Hits		2		1
Possible Hits		0		7
Misses			41		25
Insufficient data	3		6

OK, here's how things tally up.

			Mark		GMS
Predictions		51		68
Hits			5		29
Partial Hits		2		1
Possible Hits		0		7
Misses			41		25
Insufficient data	3		6

I need to point out that the five hits I gave were not *highly* unusual --
that is, I believe the events predicted, while somewhat rare, could be
predicted by an expert in the appropriate field with a similar success rate.

    There were also several instances of misleading analysis.  Omission of
    full context occurred several times, which is misleading to those
    without long memories.  They tried to get two hits out of one
    prediction where they had, at best, a partial hit.  Things like
    this do not inspire confidence in me.
    
    Should anybody take GMS seriously?  I think not.
    Mark
    Coming next: looking for predictions they didn't bother to include in
    their analysis.
        

    I'm done.  (If I wasn't, you wouldn't have been able to reply here.)
    
    Mark

    Well, the search for "missing" predictions wasn't as painful as I thought
    it would be.  I found 20 more predictions, including, somewhat
    inexplicably, his "two Florida hurricanes" predictions, which were
    nearly satisfied by Hurricane Andrew.
    
The following predictions appeared in issues of the ECR dating from
January 1992 to October 1992 (the time period covered by the ECR's
summary and analysis), but were not listed in the summary and analysis
covering that time period.  Unless otherwise noted, these are MISSES.

But first, a Corrigendum:

40. I first reported that this prediction did not exist.  In going through
    the issues in detail, I now realize I was somehow looking at the wrong
    issue at the time.  Herewith, amended commentary:
Nikkei Levels (HIT)
   Summary says: "Expect to see the Japanese Nikkei market to begin its
    leveling in February/March."
   Event was: March 16, Nikkei hits bottom.
   Original (February 92) says: I expect to see the Japanese Nikkei marhet
    to begin its leveling in February/March.  Watch for this! I sense the
    Nikkei will level first and then crash ahead of the US Dow."

    Mark says: It leveled off, but did not, to my memory, "crash" afterward.
     Neither did the US Dow.  A PARTIAL HIT.

    [This was previously a NO PREDICTION. Effect on count:
     Predictions +1, Partial hits +1.]

(Numbering continues in sequence from summary listing.)

January 1992

69. Japanese Company buys controlling share of Chrysler.

70. March/April 1992 market crash. ["Correction" after prediction 48
    failed.  Of course, it failed too...]

71. Gold and silver down in January, collectibles up until spring.
    [INSUFFICIENT DATA, until I get historical info.]

February 1992

72. Existing Home Sales and New Housing Starts increase.
    [INSUFFICIENT DATA, pending historical data.]

73. Pinatubo causes crop failures in 92-94.  [Outside the flood zone,
    crops are quite good this year.  Bumper harvests, in fact.]

74. "Earth Tremors" not caused by earthquake fault lines begin "this year"
    (1992) and continue through 90's.  [None so far, so a MISS.]

[In response to a reader query] 
75. Major nuclear power accident "within 24 months" [i.e. Feb 92-Feb 94]
    in the US.

[from "Earth Changes in Review" column, some further admissions of failure,
 not reported in summary]
76. Great Lakes-area airports closed by snowstorms.  Predicted in 10/91,
    missed.

77. California unseasonably cold.  Predicted 10/91, opposite was true.

[and a hit from the same column]
78. US has worst Christmas sales in 20 years.  Predicted 11/91.  Wall
    Street Journal later reported sales were "the flattest in 30 years."

March 1992

79. Florida hit by storm from east. High winds, rain, tornadoes.
    [In the July 1992 issue, GMS predicts further details:
     "The first hurricane will cross the Bahamas at approximately 27 degrees
     latitude, slamming into Florida's east coast.  It will then hug the
     Florida coast as it moves north, past Savannah, causing damage to the
     East Coast. [...] [It] will be the largest recorded in Florida's history,
     [...] winds exceeding 150 mph. [...] Occurring between August 15 and
     September 27, 1992."
     Hurricane Andrew satisfies these details in the following ways:
       o hit east coast August 24
       o winds over 150 mph
       o worst Florida hurricane
     It does not satisfy landfall or track.  I give PARTIAL HIT.]

80. Florida hit by storm from west, by Sept. 22. High winds, rain, tornadoes.
    [A MISS, to my knowledge.]

81. Electrical storms hit northeast.

82. "I continue to see a leveling to occur in the stock market this spring."
    [Contrast with prediction 70 above, which predicts a crash in spring.
     In fact, the stock market rose, so both MISS.]

83. "Gold and silver to increase [...] and art [...] to continue the
    downtrend." [Contrast to prediction 71. INSUFFICIENT DATA for now.]

April 1992

[Several predictions, but not due to pass in 1992 or into 1993, omitted.]

84. Computer hard disks the size of credit cards, with capacity 100x current
    disks.  [I know disks have gotten quite small, but don't believe the
    capacity of them has improved that much.  I give this NO PREDICTION,
    as the advent of miniaturization in the computer industry is *not*
    unusual.]

85. Arteries cleaned by sonic or vibrating devices.

May 1992

86. "The East Coast will also experience quakes in the 5-7+ range in
    92-93.  Buffalo, Boston, Great Lakes Region, Philadelphia [...]"

[Further reiteration of Dow crash described in prediction 40.  Dow to
drop to 2000 or lower.  Omitted as separate prediction.]

June 1992

87. "Massive" tornadoes in Georgia, Ohio, Illinois, Connecticut.

88. Housing (starts and sales) down.  Mortgage rates to double digits.

July-October 1992 [none]

The tally so far:

			Mark		GMS
Predictions		71		68 (should have been 88)
Hits			6		29
Partial Hits		4		1
Possible Hits		0		7
Misses			55		25
Insufficient data	6		6

    This does not look like a remarkable track record to me.
    
    Mark

             
    Marcos,
    
    Re: copyright laws and computer networks
    
    You can put in excerpts and summations from GMS articles, however 
    entering the entire text verbatim, or large sections of it, is not 
    allowed unless you gain permission from the author/publisher before 
    doing so. 
    
    Cindy

    Marcos is correct in assuming his postings may be a violation of
    copyright.  At least one of them is in fact a substantial portion of
    one of the ECR's I have.  And GMS does, in at least one issue, request
    compliance with copyright, as distribution of ECR is presumably a major
    source of his income.
    
    My excerpts are probably short enough to be covered under the "fair use"
    provisions of copyright law.
    
    Mark
    

I rate THE EARTH CHANGES REPORT by GMS as a basic waste of effort for the 
following reasons which I have extracted from one of the reports I received
via e-mail some time ago:


	New East Coast Predictions

	I see weather pattern changes increasing in April and continuing
	throughout the decade.  The path of the Blizzard of '93 will
	repeat itself again this spring, summer and fall as more storms
	with hurricane velocity winds occur.  This will bring flooding,
	mud slides, power outages and shortages.  I believe most of the
	storms will come out of the Florida Straights and the Gulf of
	Mexico.  At least one will move north, hugging the west coast
	of Florida and then turning slightly westward to Louisiana and
	Texas.  Another will move across the Florida Keys and move up
	the Eastern Seaboard from the east coast of Flordia to Nova 
	Scotia.  Winds at times will reach 175-200 mph.

Mighty quiet last summer if you ask me.  Hmm, I think I'll call this a miss.

	Northwest USA/Canada Earth Changes Predictions

	Cynthia and I just returned from the State of Washington where
	we conducted the Matrix Earth Changes Conference '93.  The purpose
	of the Conference was to introduce new information regarding Earth
	changes for this region.  Many times, I am able to receive clearer
	visions of upcoming events for an area, when I am in the vicinity.
	I believe the reason for this is that my Earth sensitivity to the
	area increases, thus indicating visions of future events in that
	area.  The following is a summary of my updated visions for the
	Northwest and California.

	. Quake activity, greater than 6, in the Aleutian Islands (Alaska)
	  should be considered to be a precursor to Earth changes for the
	  Northwest.  (Note: the day after the conference, Monday, March
	  22, 1993, a 5.4 quake hit the Aleutians.  This region is a
	  seismically active area).

	. Volcanic activity on Mt. Baker - I see a blow-out this spring or
	  early summer.

	. Mt. Rainier will erupt this spring or early summer.  Ash will fall
	  in Seattle and within a 100 mile radius of Rainier.  The eruption
	  will be greater than Mt. Pinatubo and Mt. Saint Helens combined.

	. Tidal waves and earthquakes will hit the Northwest and northern
	  and southern California in '93.  (Note: On March 25th - 4 days 
	  after the Conference, a 5.3 earthquake hit just south of Portland,
	  Oregon, approximately 75 miles from Newport.

	. After Tribulation, the new Coastline for the Northwest will follow
	  a line roughly from Portland, Oregon north along U.S. Route 5 to
	  Billingham, crossing into British Columbia, Canada and then 
	  following a line, roughly, along Canadian Route 97 north to the 
	  Yukon.  Keep in mind that in my Future Map of the United States
	  1998-2001, I suggest a 50-mile variable be considered as a 
	  "safety margin".  Even before the Coastline changes, the Northwest
	  will experience weather pattern changes - floods, storms and tidal
	  waves will be on going throughout Tribulation [1991-97].  These 
	  should be seen as warnings for those in the area to consider moving
	  away from coastal regions during these times.  Most of Southern
	  Canada, away from the coastal region, will be relatively safe
	  during Tribulation with the exception of weather and quake activity
	  coming from California and Washington.

	. Tidal waves and quakes will hit Vancouver.

	. The area from the Juan de Fuca Strait to Olympia will experience
	  tidal waves and quakes.

	. All the islands in the Puget S ound will experience tidal waves and
	  quakes.

	. Water will be responsible for most of the loss of life, globally,
	  due to Earth changes during Tribulation.

	. Changes begin this year in the Northwest - '93, and new maps will
	  be required by '95.  Final Coastline in 1998-2001.

Well, I don't have a TV anymore, but, unless I missed something, the
cartographers aren't havin' near as much fun as they thought they would be.
It ain't Tribulation time in my book.

	. Hawaiian Islands - Earth changes begin this year - major eruptions
	  on the Island of Hawaii.  Tidal waves will hit all islands coming
	  from the mainland West Coast.  (All speakers agree Hawaiian Islands
	  will be very hard hit during Tribulation - losing much of its land
	  to the sea.  I see mass migrations beginning in '93.

Hawaiian vacations are still high on the list of fun in the sun.  8-)))

	. California - the West Coast will begin to shake this month as 
	  precursors begin for ECR's predicted third L.A. quake - 8.3 plus
	  or minus .5, 100 mi radius of Palm Springs.  As previously stated,
	  I believe these changes are due to warming ocean waters because of
	  under sea volcanic activity and the Earth's magnetic field 
	  becoming erratic - its frequency and position are in the process 
	  of changing.  Added to this, of course, are the disharmonious
	  human thoughts - out of harmony with nature, each other, and the
	  Creator.  Our tampering and misuse of technology continue to create
	  Earth changes in the form of weather pattern changes.  I continue
	  to see more than just the third L.A. Quake.  I see multiple quakes -
	  Sonoma County, San Diego, Los Angeles, Bakersfield, Eureka, and
	  in the Mojave Desert around Barstow and Amboy.  I also see the
	  birth of a new volcano in California in the Mojave Desert sometime
	  in '93-'95.

Been preety quiet out there too.  I kept looking around last summer and this 
Christmas when my SO and I drove from LA to Durango, CO.  Lots of old volcanos
around fer shur, no new ones (yet ;-).

	The Conference was an eye-opener for most of us, including the
	speakers.  I usually do not have an opportunity to view the work
	of others.  It's eerie when their visions mirror my own.  I have
	learned to watch for what I call "battery information".  This is
	when the information from many different sources are similar -
	all seeing the same visions as to specific times, dates and places.
	This was evident at the Conference and further confirms my belief
	that the Earth changes that I have predicted are going to happen.
	I have, therefore, increased all my probabilities to 95%.  

Sounds like a real 5% solution here (pretty weak) if you ask me.

Oh, by the way, I made some predictions also.  I was also wrong, the Mississippi
still runs through New Orleans (for now 8-).

80)

Why am I not surprised?

- Predictions sell a lot more tabloids than reviews of the accuracy of
predictions.

... because ...

- A lot of people are interested in knowing something before their
friends know it, but not many people care whether what they know is the truth.

    I bet GMS tries to make much of all the flooding that's happened
    (even though he probably didn't predict the right locations...)
    
    I thought of revisting my 1992 issues to review his 1993 predictions,
    but my memory tells me it'll be a real waste of time.
                  
    Mark