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Conference 7.286::digital_investing

Title:Digital Investing
Moderator:a-61.tunnel.crl.dec.com::needle
Created:Mon Nov 06 1995
Last Modified:Wed Jun 04 1997
Last Successful Update:Fri Jun 06 1997
Number of topics:476
Total number of notes:10632

468.0. "Q3FY97 Business Estimates" by ASABET::SILVERBERG (My Other O/S is UNIX) Tue Jan 28 1997 12:45

    With 30% of quarter gone, it's time to estimate the Q3FY97 results.
    
    My guess:       Net Revenue = $3.2B (Q3FY96 = $3.6B) Down 11%
                    Net Profit  = $25M  (Q3FY96 = $124M) Down 75%
                   
    
    Business seems slower than last Q3, and Q2 just completed.  With
    slightly less revenue than Q2, profit should be slightly less.
    If there were any financial arrangements to insure a profit in Q2
    that might impact Q3, we might even show a loss in Q3.
    
    Bob Palmer forecasted over $1.00 per share net for the fiscal year.
    If Q3 turns out as I guessed, we will have to have one heck of a
    Q4 to come close to $1.00 EPS for the year, given our 1st 6 months
    performance.
    
    Mark
     
T.RTitleUserPersonal
Name
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468.1What the street expects is...BEGIN::ROTITHORTue Jan 28 1997 12:5522
The Zacks average estimates are:

                       

                          Research Analysts' Earnings Estimates and
                                            Actuals 

                       Consensus estimate for current fiscal year: $ 0.94 per
share 
                       Consensus estimate for next fiscal year: $ 2.78 per share 

                       Consensus estimate for current quarter: $ 0.33 per share 
                       Last quarter's actual earnings :$ 0.15 per share 
                       Last quarter's EPS Surprise: 99 % 

I guess these figures keep changing all th time.
.33c EPS would translate to about 45M in net profit. Most investors beleive that
DEC is well positioned with the current prices and products to take off.
If the results are anywhere near those in .0 (about .15 eps), investors would
very easily loose confidence in DEC stock and would dump it.
Investors have a high expectation from the company in the near future and the
next few Quarters seem critical to say the least.
468.2Inquiring minds want to know ...RTOEU::KPLUSZYNSKIArrived...Tue Jan 28 1997 13:115
    Do you have a public source for these numbers ? 
    An internet URL perhaps ?
    Thanks, 
    
    Klaus
468.3BEGIN::ROTITHORTue Jan 28 1997 13:426
In .2, if you are asking for a public source for the estimates in .1, yes, there
is and it is as follows:

http://www.ultra.zacks.com/cgi-bin/ShowFreeCompRep

Just enter DEC symbol; if you were referring to .0 I don't know.
468.4my guessHYDRA::PASHAPOURDisk space, the final frontierTue Jan 28 1997 13:556
    Rev. $3.62B
    Net. $98M
    
    Just a quess.
    
    Amin
468.5CPDEV::DOUGLASunintentionally left blankTue Jan 28 1997 16:097
    
    
    It looks like the web page is actually
    
    http://www.ultra.zacks.com/docs/show.html
    
    \paul
468.6Worked fine for me....AWECIM::SEGALTue Jan 28 1997 20:385
Cool service. I reached it at the following URL, just a few minutes ago:

http://www.ultra.zacks.com/cgi-bin/ShowFreeCompRep

-Meir
468.7LJSRV2::JCNo friends on powder daysFri Mar 07 1997 12:576
Q3:

	revenues: 2.95 B
	EPS: $.04


468.8SMURF::PSHPer Hamnqvist, UNIX/ATMFri Mar 07 1997 13:054
Q3:

   Revenue: $3.55B
   EPS: $0.46
468.9MAIL1::KAPLANFri Mar 07 1997 13:124
    Q3 :
    
    	REVENUE $3.25B
        EPS: $0.24
468.10DECC::OUELLETTEcrunchFri Mar 07 1997 14:192
revenue $3.5B
eps	$0.25
468.11WHEN IN DOUBT SHIP IT OUTWMOIS::ROUGIERSat Mar 08 1997 16:492
    revenue: $3.38B
    eps:     $0.39
468.1226115::CONNELLYAre you paranoid ENOUGH?Thu Mar 13 1997 04:094
    revenue: $2.99B
    eps:     $0.13

468.13Announcement Date?ACISS2::MARESyou get what you settle forTue Apr 01 1997 14:575
    Anybody know what the target announcement date is for Q3 financial
    results???
    
    Randy
    
468.14Q3 Results due on April 17NQOS01::dhcp205.syo.dec.com::SOJDAWed Apr 02 1997 15:042
According to the notes in the recent organizational change memo, Q3 results 
will be released on April 17.
468.15BW: $37m on $3.3bPCBUOA::KRATZMon Apr 07 1997 15:4915
    Another Reorg at DIGITAL
    Business Week, April 14th, 1997
    
    The return to healthy growth and robust profits is still not happening
    at Digital Equipment Corporation.  Analysts now say earnings for the
    quarter just ended should be just $37 million, a 70% drop from a year
    ago, signaling Digital's third lackluster quarter in a row.  Revenue
    should come in around $3.3 billion, down 9% from a year ago.  The
    company is trying yet another reorganization.  Bruce Claflin will now
    head up a streamlined sales and marketing organization.  But meanwhile,
    sales of Digital's Alpha computers are limping along at single-digit
    growth rates, despite discounts that are hurting profits, distibutors
    say.
    
    
468.16ACISS1::BATTISFerzie fanTue Apr 15 1997 15:583
    
    revenue: 3.45 billion
    EPS: $39 million
468.17WMOIS::ROUGIERTue Apr 15 1997 16:352
    REVENUE: 3.27
    PROFIT: - $3 MIL
468.18PCBUOA::KRATZTue Apr 15 1997 19:035
    Revenue: $2.8 billion
    Profit:  -$10 million
    
    Lump all the bad news here to set up a very nice Q4.   
    .02 Kratz
468.19ACISS2::MARESyou get what you settle forTue Apr 15 1997 19:549
    Revenue:  $3  B
    Profit:   $10 M
    
    Just my SWAG,
    
    Randy
    
    
    
468.20so much for the stockMAASUP::CROSBYMWed Apr 16 1997 16:052
    Revenue: $2.5 b
    Profit:  $22 m
468.21Q3 results -- $51 million, or 27 cents/shareLGP30::FLEISCHERwithout vision the people perish (DTN 381-0426 ZKO1-1)Thu Apr 17 1997 11:39232
               DIGITAL reports Q3 net income of $51 million
      
         DIGITAL today reported net income of $51 million, or 27 cents per 
   common share, for the third quarter which ended March 29, 1997, 
   compared with net income of $124 million, or 74 cents per common share, 
   for the same period last year.
         Total operating revenue for the quarter was $3.31 billion, 
   compared to $3.62 billion reported for the comparable quarter a year 
   ago.
         "I am pleased we showed good earnings improvement over our second 
   quarter," said DIGITAL Chairman Robert B. Palmer. "Although revenue was 
   not where we wanted it to be, it was within our expectations with 
   progress in key strategic areas.  I am particularly encouraged by the 
   growth in Windows NT-based solutions and Internet products and 
   services. I am confident that we will return to year-over-year revenue 
   growth over the next few quarters."
                                                                          
   Progress made in strategic areas
 
         Product revenue in the quarter was $1.84 billion compared to 
   $2.06 billion in the third quarter of the previous year.  Service 
   revenue was $1.48 billion compared with $1.57 billion reported in the 
   same period last year.
         Palmer said DIGITAL is making progress in a number of strategic 
   areas.
         "Our Internet business, which includes servers, networking 
   products, software and services, achieved good growth during the 
   quarter with total revenue now more than $1 billion on an annual 
   basis," Palmer said. "We are achieving substantial success in sales to 
   Internet service providers where more than 200 ISPs in 37 countries 
   have turned to DIGITAL for Alpha and Intel servers, storage systems and 
   networking products."
         Palmer said the company also is winning business with Microsoft 
   Exchange on Windows NT, capturing approximately 900,000 Exchange seats 
   worldwide since the beginning of the fiscal year.  More than 50 percent 
   of the wins represent new business for DIGITAL, including installations 
   at British Petroleum and Lehman Brothers.
         DIGITAL's network product business, Palmer said, introduced a new 
   family of high-performance switches that was well-received by the 
   marketplace and generated strong demand.
         The company's Services Division, Palmer said, met both its 
   near-term objectives for revenue and gross margin.  The division 
   announced a $70 million services contract with Canada's TransAlta 
   Corp. early in the quarter and recently won a $13.5 million contract 
   with Perkin Elmer, a leading manufacturer of life-science systems and 
   analytical instruments, to help design, manage and support a worldwide 
   SAP infrastructure.
         
   New products rolled out in Q3
 
         During the quarter, DIGITAL introduced a number of important new 
   products. 
         The company announced additions and enhancements to its 64-bit 
   DIGITAL AlphaServer and personal workstation product lines. The new 
   AlphaServer 800 and enhanced AlphaServer 1000A systems provide 
   high-availability, computer-clustering solutions for UNIX and Windows 
   NT and new Windows NT intranet search capabilities. The competitively 
   priced entry-level servers target the small business market.
         Two new Windows NT personal workstations were announced based on 
   the Alpha microprocessor which deliver breakthrough Windows NT 
   workstation performance and the world's fastest Windows NT 3D graphics 
   solutions.                                                             
         Additionally, the company unveiled three new models in its 
   value-priced HiNote VP 500 mobile client series which include models 
   with Windows NT Workstation 4.0 pre-loaded and pre-configured with 
   power management and plug-and-play features.
         DIGITAL continued to strengthen Alpha's position as the 
   industry's leading high performance microprocessor. The company 
   unveiled the low cost Alpha 21164PC microprocessor, jointly designed 
   with Mitsubishi Electric, that delivers Alpha power at PC prices making 
   it very attractive to the volume Windows NT market.
         In addition, DIGITAL announced a network appliance reference 
   design with Network Computer Inc., a subsidiary of Oracle Corp., based 
   on DIGITAL's low power/high performance StrongARM microprocessor.  The 
   reference design is aimed at creating the industry standard for the 
   most powerful, low-cost network computing platform.
         Early interest in this offering is very encouraging, with Funai 
   Electric Company and Aranex Inc. already committed to producing network 
   computing devices based on the design. 
         Additionally, DIGITAL announced a memo of understanding with 
   China Aerospace Corporation for a joint venture in the People's 
   Republic of China to explore development, manufacture and distribution 
   of network computers based on this reference design.
 
   Expense control
   
         Gross margin for the quarter was 33.4 percent, compared with 32.9 
   percent in the previous quarter and 34.6 percent for the comparable 
   period a year ago.
         Product gross margin was 35.3 percent, compared with 37.1 percent 
   in the third quarter of 1996. Service gross margin was 31 percent 
   compared with 31.3 percent in the third quarter of fiscal 1996.
         "Over the past three years we've succeeded in improving product 
   gross margin by 10 points while at the same time, stabilizing service 
   gross margin," said DIGITAL Chief Financial Officer Vincent J. 
   Mullarkey.
         Total operating expenses were $1.06 billion compared to $1.13 
   billion reported in the same period last year.
         "Overall operating expenses for the quarter reflected good 
   management control and the impact of restructuring, resulting in a 7 
   percent reduction in operating expenses from the same period last 
   year," Mullarkey said.
         "Our third quarter profits improved considerably over the second 
   quarter, despite the significant negative impact of the strengthening 
   U.S. dollar," Mullarkey continued. "Management actions were taken 
   across the company during the quarter to partly mitigate the currency 
   impact."
         The company ended the quarter with $2.48 billion in cash and 
   short term investments, up approximately $200 million from the second 
   quarter. 
         "The company's balance sheet continues to strengthen in all 
   areas," Mullarkey said.  "Improvements in inventory and accounts 
   receivable contributed to the fifth consecutive quarter of positive 
   cash flow from operations. During the quarter, the company repurchased 
   4.5 million shares of common stock at a cost of approximately $160 
   million. The company's cash and short term investments position has 
   improved more than $700 million from a year ago."
         The corporation completed the quarter with approximately 55,100 
   employees -- a net reduction of 5,800 positions from a year ago.
         Statements contained in this press release which are not historic 
   facts are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the 
   Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All forward-looking 
   statements are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause 
   actual results to differ from those projected. Such risks and 
   uncertainties are discussed more fully in the company's latest 
   quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the company's other filings with the 
   Securities and Exchange Commission.
   
   Consolidated Statements of Operations (Unaudited)
   (in thousands except per share data)
                         
                                          Three-month Period Ended               
                                  March 29, 1997         March 30, 1996 
 
 Product sales...................$     1,836,516         $    2,055,710 
 Service revenues.................     1,477,794              1,565,316 
 Total operating revenues.........     3,314,310              3,621,026 
 Cost of product sales............     1,188,578              1,294,032 
 Service expense..................     1,019,290              1,074,650 
 Research and engineering 
  expenses........................       256,476                275,703 
 Selling, general and 
  administrative expenses.........       798,714                858,203 
 Operating income.................        51,252                118,438 
 Other (income)/expense, net (1)..       (10,848)               (19,272)
 Income before income taxes.......        62,100                137,710 
 Provision for income taxes.......        11,134                 13,637 
 Net income.......................        50,966                124,073 
 Dividend on preferred stock......         8,875                  8,875 
 Net income applicable 
  to common stock................$        42,091         $      115,198 
 Net income applicable 
  per common share (2)...........$          0.27         $         0.74 
 Weighted average common 
  shares outstanding..............       155,666                156,594 
                         
                                          Nine-Month Period Ended                
                                  March 29, 1997         March 30, 1996 

 Product sales...................$     5,202,959         $    6,221,248 
 Service revenues.................     4,380,739              4,622,275 
 Total operating revenues.........     9,583,698             10,843,523 
 Cost of product sales............     3,445,203              4,133,992 
 Service expense..................     3,016,261              3,115,310 
 Research and engineering expenses       763,961                795,483 
 Selling, general and 
  administrative expenses.........     2,348,297              2,464,372 
 Operating income.................         9,976                334,366 
 Other (income)/expense, net (1)..       (27,465)               (30,416)
 Income before income taxes.......        37,441                364,782 
 Provision for income taxes.......        20,475                 43,756 
 Net income.......................        16,966                321,026 
 Dividends on preferred stock.....        26,625                 26,625 
 Net income/(loss) applicable
  to common stock................$        (9,659)        $      294,401 
 Net income/(loss) applicable 
  per common share (2)...........$         (0.06)        $         1.91 
 Weighted average common 
  shares outstanding..............       154,965                154,209 
                         
   Note (1):  In the third quarter of fiscal 1997, Other (income)/expense, 
   net includes approximately $30 million of interest income, $21 million 
   in interest expense and $2 million in net gain on divestments. In the 
   third quarter of fiscal 1996, Other (income)/expense, net includes 
   approximately $19 million in interest income, $26 million in interest 
   expense and there were $26 million in net gains on divestments. In the 
   first nine months of fiscal 1997, Other (income)/expense, net includes 
   approximately $82 million in interest income, $64 million in interest 
   expense and $9 million in net gains on divestments.  In the first nine 
   months of fiscal 1996 Other (income)/expense, net includes 
   approximately $57 million in interest income and $75 million in 
   interest expense and $48 million in net gains on divestments.          
                 
   Note (2):  Per common share amounts are calculated based on the 
   weighted average number of common shares and common share equivalents 
   outstanding during periods of net income, after deducting applicable 
   preferred stock dividends. Per share amounts are calculated based only 
   on the weighted average number of shares outstanding during periods of 
   net loss, after deducting applicable preferred stock dividends.
         
   Selected Balance Sheet Data (Unaudited) - Q3 FY97
   (in thousands except per share and employee data)
                 
                                                         March 29, 1997          
 
 Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.......$    2,481,708          
 Accounts receivable, net of allowances...................    2,886,164 
 Inventories..............................................    1,471,390 
 Prepaid expenses, deferred income taxes and other 
  current assets..........................................      324,510 
 Total current assets.....................................    7,163,772 
 Property, plant and equipment, net.......................    2,114,074 
 Other assets.............................................      334,667 
 Total assets.............................................    9,612,513 
 Bank loans and current portion of long-term debt (3).....      264,043 
 Accounts payable.........................................      810,056 
 Accrued restructuring costs..............................      443,230 
 Total current liabilities................................    4,187,413 
 Long-term debt (3).......................................      749,320 
 Postretirement and other postemployment benefits.........    1,179,420 
 Total liabilities........................................    6,116,153 
 Stockholders' equity....................................$    3,496,360 
 Book value per common share.............................$        20.26 
 Non-U.S. revenues...................................QTR $    2,274,037 
                                                                    69%
                                                     YTD $    6,473,907 
                                                                    68%
 Employee population (approximately).....................        55,100 
         
   Note (3):  In the second quarter of fiscal 1997, $250 million was 
   reclassed from long-term debt to current portion of long term debt to 
   recognize that the five-year bond is due in November of 1997. 
468.22SHRCTR::peterj.shr.dec.com::PJohnsonNothing unreal exists.Thu Apr 17 1997 12:174
>    revenue: 3.45 billion
>    EPS: $39 million

Whoa! I'll take that EPS anyday!
468.23ACISS1::BATTISFerzie fanThu Apr 17 1997 12:494
    
    <---------  hey, we need to catch Intel. actually, that should say
    net income. hey, i was only $12 million off. Here's hoping Q4 has
    earnings of 79-82 cents a share.
468.24My guess it was BAD so no mentionCSCMA::BALICHThu Apr 17 1997 13:496
    
    I got a question:
    
    WHY isn't DEC talking about ALPHA growth this quarter ???
    
    No mention on how ALPHA did ... WHY ?
468.25GVPROD::MSTEINERThu Apr 17 1997 14:066
    Re .-1:
    
    Wasn't it the same last quarter ? And it was only at an analyst conference
    that Palmer said Alpha growth was 1% ! 
    
    Michel.
468.26always go contrary to this file...GAAS::BRAUCHERAnd nothing else mattersThu Apr 17 1997 14:065
  I also have a question : how come the members of this conference are
 such atrocious predicters ?  I could do better with darts.

  bb
468.27CTHU22::M_MORINMario Morin, Hull CSC - CanadaThu Apr 17 1997 14:1410
In order to meet Bob Palmer's prediction that for FY97 the company
would make $1.00/share, I calculate that we need to show a 
profit of $163M for Q4.

We're currently -$0.06/share ($9.6M loss)for the 9 months of FY97.

This calculation is based on 154,965,000 shares outstanding.  I figured
we need to make $1.06/share in Q4.

/Mario
468.28they know...PCBUOA::KRATZThu Apr 17 1997 14:283
    The fact that they didn't comment on Alpha means that
        Alpha probably wasn't very good,"
    -John Jones, Soloman Brothers
468.29Maybe a lesson learnedSMURF::PSHPer Hamnqvist, UNIX/ATMThu Apr 17 1997 14:3313
|    WHY isn't DEC talking about ALPHA growth this quarter ???

Unless those numbers were *excellent* why set ourselves up for cheap shots
from our competition? Just because they are not excellent does not mean they
are bad. I imagine Alpha did not do too well, but I doubt the entire blame
can be laid on it as a poor hardware platform. Much of it can probably be
attributed to internal organizational turmoil. So if we tell the competition
that the numbers are not too exciting, they will turn around and tell their
customers that this is proof that the industry is not embracing the Alpha
when in fact part of the problem is that the industry may be trying but Digital
has been so darn difficult to do business with.

>Per
468.30I thought book value was Equity/sharesMKOTS3::BREENThu Apr 17 1997 14:355
    If total equity is 3.5 bil and we have 155 million common shares why
    isn't book value $22 vs 20 or taking the 20.26 book value * 155k shares
    and getting 3.1 billion wheres the other 400 million dollars?
    
    Are some assets not included in the book value computation?
468.31it could certainly be worse...GAAS::BRAUCHERAnd nothing else mattersThu Apr 17 1997 14:555
  In the early going, the market likes this quarterly.  We're up nearly
 10% on a stagnant NYSE.

  bb
468.32DECCXL::OUELLETTEtemerity timeThu Apr 17 1997 15:4215
Two close guesses.
I guess I have my cynicism level fairly well adjusted.

MAIL1::KAPLAN
    	REVENUE $3.25B
        EPS: $0.24

DECC::OUELLETTE
	revenue $3.5B
	eps	$0.25

Actual
	revenue $3.31B
	eps	.27

468.33DEC bullish in DEC stock ???CSCMA::BALICHThu Apr 17 1997 15:479
    
    Check this out .... haven't seen the detailed story yet ... but saw
    this at 11:10 on DBC headlines ...
    
    
11:10     DIGITAL EXPECTS TO REPURCHASE ABOUT 4 MILLION SHARES IN 4TH QUARTER
    
    
I see this a very bullish ... thats alot of stock!
468.34ACISS2::LENNIGDave (N8JCX), MIG, @CYOThu Apr 17 1997 15:4922
    Employee population, culled from the quarterly reports

    		total	 Y/Y	 Q/Q
    	95Q4	61700	16000
    	96Q1	61500	12300	 200
    	96Q2	61100	 4500	 400
    	96Q3	60900	 2200	 200
    	96Q4	59100	 2600	1800
    	97Q1	57000	 4500	2100
    	97Q2	55900	 5200	1100
    	97Q3	55100	 5800	 800
    	97Q4	?????	 ????	????

    Any guesses? Comments? Also, from Q3FY97
    
>>Accrued restructuring costs..............................      443,230
    
    Is this how much of the Q4FY96 $492M restructuring charge is left,
    or is it how much has been spent? (Doesn't this have to be used up 
    by the end of this FY?)

    Dave
468.35ACISS2::LENNIGDave (N8JCX), MIG, @CYOThu Apr 17 1997 15:5810
    re: .33
    
    >>DIGITAL EXPECTS TO REPURCHASE ABOUT 4 MILLION SHARES IN 4TH QUARTER
    
    From Q4FY96: "As a result, Digital has announced a stock repurchase 
    program for up to 10 million common shares." and from Q3FY97: "During
    the quarter, the company repurchased 4.5 million shares of common 
    stock at a cost of approximately $160 million." 10M - 4.5M = 5.5M
    
    Dave
468.36PCBUOA::KRATZThu Apr 17 1997 17:548
    Alpha Systems revenue was down 2%, units up 6%, vs. year ago
    according to some "Talking points" message that accompanied
    the results.  Keep in mind that probably didn't include
    system boards sold by Digital Semi (which probably did some
    cannabilization of the SBU systems).
    K 
    
    
468.37that's expected, till EV6 or P7...GAAS::BRAUCHERAnd nothing else mattersThu Apr 17 1997 18:117
  so what else is new ?  EV5 & Pentium Pro, our two architectures, are
 getting long of tooth, for the high end.  We need big stuff, soon.

  You can't stand still for a year in the server biz.

  bb
468.38PCBUOA::KRATZThu Apr 17 1997 18:374
    Not to mention that a lot of talk about $2.5k Alphas six
    months from now probably didn't do much to help the sales
    of the current $25k AlphaStations.
    K
468.39PC WeekPCBUOA::KRATZThu Apr 17 1997 20:0257
PC Week, midday edition 4/17/97


			Alpha Sales Down At Digital


Digital Equipment Corp.'s earnings were better than expected,
but that isn't saying much.

Revenues at the Maynard, Mass., computer company were $3.3 billion,
down from $3.6 billion in the year-ago quarter.  Net income for the
quarter was $51 million, down from $124 million last year.

CEO Robert Palmer said that while he was pleased the company had boosted
earnings from the second quarter, he was unhappy with the current revenue
levels. 

"We should be growing at something closer to industry leader's rates for
similar products and services,"  he said. 

Sales of Digital's flagship Alpha unit suffered during the quarter,
with revenues falling 9 percent from a year ago.  In particular,
Alpha sales into the Unix market suffered considerably.

"In the Unix side of the product family we're experiencing -- particularly
in high-end sales -- a longer sales cycle this year than last year," said
Vin Mullarkey, Digital's chief financial officer.  Mullarkey said that
Alpha sales also may be dampened because the transition from VMS/VAX is 
slowing. 

Price cuts also had an impact on Alpha revenue. In March, the company
announced a series of low-cost Alpha chips, aiming to make a name for the
chip on the desktop NT market.

"We saw an increase in the number of units, but that hasn't offset the
decrease in revenue due to price reductions," Palmer said.  "Last year
there was pent-up demand for performance from our existing [VMS/VAX]
installed base, and that conversion has taken place.  Growth today is 
in new business and applications."

Palmer and Mullarkey said the Alpha revenue loss was expected, and added
that unit shipments had risen 6 percent from the second quarter.

Palmer said he was pleased with sales in the Internet business, which
encompass servers networking products and software, adding that he would
like the company to grab 20 percent of the worldwide market in that area
by fiscal 1998.  Annually, that business brings in about $1 billion to 
Digital.

Looking ahead, Mullarkey said the fourth quarter should see a revenue
increase in the mid- to high-single digits.

Currency issues could continue to affect Digital's revenues in the next
quarter, Mullarkey said today.  The company's revenues were down about
$60 million due to currency issues resulting from a strong dollar. The 
problems could continue, at similar levels, into Digital's fourth 
quarter, he said.
468.40Ramblin' OnNCMAIL::YANUSCFri Apr 18 1997 12:2641
    A few thoughts around the earnings announcement, the erosion of Alpha    
    sales, and buying back stock:
    
    1. We exceeded analysts expectations, albeit the revised ones from the
    last 6-8 week period.  Most expected profits of $25M, some expected
    $10M, and towards the end a few started hinting at a loss.  Under those
    conditions our profits were well received, which is why our relatively
    small profits caused the stock to move higher, while Sun's profits,
    while large in relation to ours, did not necessarily exceed
    expectations.  Hence, their stock did nothing on their news. 
    Personally I would prefer to be at their profit levels, and the heck
    with what happened to their stock in a short time period.
    
    2. Regarding lowered Alpha sales - No one, I repeat no one, has as much
    vested interest in the success of Alpha than the employees of this
    company.  In particular that includes the direct sales and support
    people in the field, whose livelihood depends upon this success.  No
    one has that same desire, not our resellers who carry umpteen vendors
    lines in addition to Digital's, and not the OEMs we think are pushing
    Alpha products.  Take away a goodly number of your direct selling
    force, and watch as attrition takes many more, and it does not take a
    rocket scientist to understand why Alpha sales are down.  Unless this
    trend is reversed, you can expect a continued erosion of Alpha sales,
    on a steady quarter by quarter basis.  I'm not sure when the powers to
    be will wake up to that fact, but I fear time is running short.
    
    3. Stock buybacks can be effective under the right conditions. 
    Normally I feel that this is best accomplished when one is generating
    lots of excess cash, not when one is hanging on by their fingernails. 
    The GEs of the world come to mind as examples of companies who are
    expanding at a rapid clip, generating profits, and therefore using some
    of the excess proceeds to redeem shares.  But a high-tech company like
    Digital can send a message that we do not necessarily know where to
    invest for growth by such an action, particularly during these times. 
    It also can give a downright negative connotation (defensive move on
    management's part to shield the company from a hostile bid.)  I suppose
    we are damned if we do, damned if we don't in this scenario, but
    personally I would like to see the $ used for purposes of growing the
    business.
    
    Chuck                       
468.41Yes butMKTCRV::MANNERINGSFri Apr 18 1997 12:5410
    >Take away a goodly number of your direct selling
    >force, and watch as attrition takes many more, and it does not take
    >a rocket scientist to understand why Alpha sales are down.
    
    Yes, I think that is it too. The ridiculous thing is that the company
    stategists were taken by suprise at this. But it is still disaapointing
    that unix high-end is weak. It would suggest that VLM is not taking off
    as expected. Is that the case ?
    
    ..Kevin..
468.42AMCFAC::RABAHYdtn 471-5160, outside 1-810-347-5160Fri Apr 18 1997 13:221
Perhaps Alpha is in the chasm?
468.43axel.zko.dec.com::FOLEYhttp://axel.zko.dec.comFri Apr 18 1997 13:2711
RE: .41

	Perhaps it is Unix' slowing growth in general. I personally
	think we are caught in the middle of a slowdown on the Unix/VMS
	side and an upswing on the Windows NT side, where the future
	growth is.

	I'd rather not debate the merits of this. It's reality at the
	moment.

							mike
468.44SUN hasn't stopped growing....TROOA::MSCHNEIDERmartin.schneider@tro.mts.dec.comFri Apr 18 1997 14:416
    Re. -1
    
    You mean our slowing DUNIX growth.... you might have noticed that the
    growth of UNIX overall far exceed the growth of DUNIX.  Gartner report
    not likely to have helped and the fact that our overall performance
    lead has shrunk or been eliminated in many segments.
468.45RE: .43gemevn.zko.dec.com::GLOSSOPOnly the paranoid surviveFri Apr 18 1997 14:429
The Sun piece in the WSJ on their results suggested their high-end sales
were strong, if I remember correctly (don't have it handy.)

My reading is this appears to be more self-inflicted damage from cost-driven
approach rather than a growth-driven approach, given how the competitors
appear to be doing.  (We seem to have realized in some places that prices
were way out of line, but we still don't appear to have come to terms
with how much volume is required to sustain profitability and price
competitiveness at the same time.)
468.46ref to .40DECC::ROTITHORFri Apr 18 1997 15:3814
>>But a high-tech company like
>>Digital can send a message that we do not necessarily know where to
>>invest for growth by such an action, particularly during these times.

That is true and the interpretation will depend on one's outlook.
Another way to look at the stock buyback is that Digital is confident about its
future plans and growth and expects that the stock will do very well in future
Quarters and sees a low share price (possibly bootomed out) as an opportunity to
buy back the stock.
This can also instill some temporary confidence in share holders that the
company cares about them in conditions where the price has been consistently
beaten down so that they have something to look forward in the short term.
It is important to have share holders holding the stock until we get some
breathing time with large volume production of low cost Alpha NT platforms.
468.47SUBSYS::BROWNSCSI and DSSI advice given cheerfullyFri Apr 18 1997 17:0713
    It appears that we're not good at managing our cash.
    
    1. We bought back stock at about $36/share. ($160m / 4.5m = $35.something)
    	It's hard to remember a time last quarter when the stock was that high.
    	Perhaps this quarter we should dollar-cost average, by buying shares 
    	every week.  Strategically-timed purchases have backfired.
    2. Accounts Receivable exceeds 80 days's sales.  
    	Accounts Payable is only a third of that.
    3. Inventory is well over 90 days (compared to cost of sales).
    
    The only thing we did well was take $40m. from the restructuring charge
    to reduce SG&A.  Otherwise, the results would have been grounds for mutiny.
                                                  
468.48Ratios have two sidesSUBSYS::JAMESFri Apr 18 1997 17:3513
    
    Maybe Digital's low stock price is a strategy to get more shares for our
    buy-back dollar! :*(
    
    I've heard that a good portion of Palmers compensation is tied to 
    hitting an Earnings Per Share target.  If we can't grow earnings, we
    can reduce outstanding shares.  The person who told me this did
    not say what the target is.
    
    The same strategy was used to improve Sales per Employee.  Sales are
    down.  Population is down more.  Sales per Employee is up. 
    
    
468.49METSYS::THOMPSONTue Apr 22 1997 08:5219
I would blame declines in Alpha Workstation sales (VMS and UNIX). With pc's
ever more powerful they are becoming the desktop of choice even in UNIX
and VMS environments. If your PC can provide all the access you need to
your server, why adopt a desktop than can't run Office et al?
I bet this is the main source of erosion of Alpha sales. Also there has
been a minor Alpha sales boom as existing customers migrate from VAX to
ALPHA. That phase now seems to be over and we are now chasing new
applications.

On Servers we seem to be losing out big time to HP. Even that latest
Business Week artical referred to them as our "Arch-rival". For some
reason UNIX is now subject to Corporate strategists, when they mandate
it seems to be HP. E.g. Boeing, Philips, Unipart ... 

Perhaps if Sales and Marketing are now the dominant part of the Company,
as some writers interpret the latest re-org, things will change.

M
468.50Anybody with a positive view out there?CHEFS::PRINCE_TWed Apr 23 1997 08:4810
    
    ... I think I'll stop reading this conference.  It's all gloom and
    negativity. IMHO if we put as much energy into our everyday activities
    as we sometimes do into our moans and groans we'd all be better off!
    
    Can we have some positive views please?
    
    
    Trevor
    
468.5157428::TREMELLINGMaking tomorrow yesterday, today!Wed Apr 23 1997 17:355
    Something about the darkest hour is just before the dawn?
    
    This conference makes a good contrarian indicator.....
    
    Darryl
468.52PCBUOA::BAYJJim, PortablesMon Apr 28 1997 19:129
    I hate gloom and doom, too, but what I *really* hate is being mislead
    by unrealistic optimism.  It sometimes gets grey in between the realms
    of "good attitude" and "false expectations".
    
    If a good attitude could get this company out of its hole, that would
    be great.  But I think just a little bit more than that is called for.
    
    jeb