Conference cvg::hamradio_iii

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4  ARLP004
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  January 24, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de KT7H

We are still at the solar minimum, with very little activity to
report.  Since there are no really active regions that we know of on
the solar surface, there is no activity to forecast as the solar
surface rotates relative to the Earth.

This week's average solar flux was exactly the same as the week
previous, and the sunspot numbers were barely higher.  Unlike the
previous week, there were no periods of geomagnetic activity, and
the A index stayed in the single digits.

The next few weeks are expected to stay the same, with the solar
flux around the low to mid seventies, and the A index around five.
The A index may jump up to around ten on February 3, and again
around February 6-9.

Sunspot Numbers for January 16 through 22 were 16, 12, 34, 0, 0, 0
and 0 with a mean of 8.9.  10.7 cm flux was 74.8, 74.1, 74.6, 75.3,
76.8, 74.1 and 73, with a mean of 74.7.  Estimated planetary A
indices for the same period were 3, 2, 5, 4, 5, 9, and 5, with a
mean of 4.7.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5  ARLP005
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  January 31, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de KT7H

This week's bulletin is really the same as last week's.  There is
just no solar cycle progress to report.  Solar flux is still in the
low seventies, and is expected to remain that way over the next
month.  Of course this forecast of low activity is based upon the
previous solar rotation, so it only means that there has been no
activity over the past month that we can use to predict additional
effects when it rotates into view again.

There was a geomagnetic disturbance last week, with the maximum
effect on January 28 when the K indices went as high as five and the
planetary A index was 21.  Based on this we could see some unsettled
conditions again around February 23.

The lack of sunspots has been disappointing.  Most observers
expected more activity out of the next solar cycle by now.  But this
is only based upon activity over previous cycles, so all we can do
is wait.

Sunspot Numbers for January 23 through 29 were 0, 12, 11, 12, 11, 11
and 16 with a mean of 10.4.  10.7 cm flux was 73.4, 74.2, 73.1,
74.1, 73.5, 72.9 and 74.6, with a mean of 73.7.  Estimated planetary
A indices for the same period were 3, 3, 6, 13, 13, 21, and 8, with
a mean of 9.6.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  February 7, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity rose a bit this week, but only slightly, with the
solar flux above the 90 day average of 77 for three days.  Average
sunspot numbers were almost three times the average for the previous
week.  Geomagnetic activity was slightly lower.

The geomagnetic field became disturbed a couple of days before this
reporting period (on January 28) because of a high speed solar
windstream from a coronal hole on the Sun.  This caused a
geomagnetic storm, more pronounced at higher latitudes, which
resulted in the usual absorption of signals and poor conditions.

There is a possibility for some slightly unsettled geomagnetic
conditions over the next few days, and again, but a bit more severe
around February 22 to 24.  Solar flux is expected to drop down to
the lower or mid-seventies until February 21, when it is expected to
rise again, going above eighty after March 1.

Sunspot Numbers for January 30 through February 5 were 15, 13, 14,
36, 45, 44 and 33 with a mean of 28.6.  10.7 cm flux was 73.6, 72.4,
71.3, 78.4, 79.6, 80.7 and 75.3, with a mean of 75.9.  Estimated
planetary A indices for the same period were 11, 8, 6, 10, 7, 5, and
7, with a mean of 7.7.

Here are a couple of path projections for this week, from California
to Japan and from Ohio to Europe.

From California to Japan, check 80 meters from 0730z to 1530z, 40
meters from 0630z to 1700z, 30 meters around 0430z, 1230z, and 1600z
to 1900z, and 20 meters from 2200z to 0130z.  17 meters should be
good from 2230z to 0030z and 15 meters around 2300z.

From Ohio to Europe, check 80 meters from 2200z to 0800z, 40 meters
from 2100z to 0100z and from 0530z to 0900z, 30 meters from 1400z to
1830z and around 2000z, and 20 meters from 1530z to 1730z.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7  ARLP007
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  February 14, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity continues to stay very low.  Solar flux slowly
drifted down over the past week, with average values almost three
points lower than the previous week, and average sunspot numbers
down about 15 points.

Geomagnetic disturbances were not down, however, and the planetary A
index was above 20 over three days, indicating a geomagnetic storm.

Look for quiet conditions over the coming contest weekend, with no
expected geomagnetic disturbances and solar flux remaining in the
low seventies.  Solar flux is expected to remain in the low
seventies over the next few weeks.  February 22 through 24 could see
a recurrence of geomagnetic activity, and again to a lesser extent
around March 5 through 7.

Sunspot Numbers for February 6 through 12 were 35, 38, 11, 11, 0, 0
and 0 with a mean of 13.6.  10.7 cm flux was 74.2, 75.7, 75.2, 73.2,
72.3, 71.1 and 70.9, with a mean of 73.2.  Estimated planetary A
indices for the same period were 9, 3, 21, 16, 21, 20, and 7, with a
mean of 13.9.

Here are some contest weekend path projections from the center of
the United States.

To Europe, check 80 meters from 2330z to 0730z, 40 from 2230z to
0230z and 0730z to 0930z, and 20 from 1530z to 1830z.

To Africa, check 80 meters from 0000z to 0330z, 40 from 2330z to
0300z and 20 from 1830z to 2130z.  There is a chance for a 15 meter
opening around 1900z.

To South America, check 80 meters from 0000z to 1000z, 40 from 2330z
to 1100z, and 20 from 1500z to 0000z, with the best 20 meter
conditions toward the end of the period.  Check 15 meters from 1700z
to 2030z, and 10 meters has a chance for some propagation around
1900z to 2100z.

To the South Pacific check 80 meters from 1000z to 1330z, 40 from
0930z to 1400z, 20 around 1530z and 15 around 2200z to 2300z.

To East Asia check 80 from 0830z to 1400z, 40 from 0830z to 1500z
and 20 from 2130z to 0000z.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8  ARLP008
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  February 21, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity continues low, with flux values still running lower
on every day than the average for the previous 90 days, which
dropped this week from 78 to 77.  Geomagnetic indices rose on
February 17 with estimated planetary K indices as high as five.

Low solar and geomagnetic activity is good news though for the 160
meter contest this weekend.  Expect good conditions throughout the
contest, with little threat of a geomagnetic upset.  For the next
few weeks conditions are expected to stay the same, with solar flux
in the low to mid seventies.

The latest long term forecast shows the next solar cycle peaking
just three years from now.  This poses the question--why haven't we
seen much activity yet from the new cycle?  The projection is based
upon previous cycles, and indicates an average sunspot number of 19
for January, and 22 for February, with the number doubling to 44 by
July.  It also shows solar flux of 77 for January, 80 for February,
84 for March, and 100 by July.  Currently it appears that actual
conditions are lagging these projections.

Sunspot Numbers for February 13 through 19 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13
and 15 with a mean of 4.  10.7 cm flux was 71.1, 71.3, 71.8, 72,
73.1, 72.9 and 72, with a mean of 72.  Estimated planetary A indices
for the same period were 4, 5, 4, 8, 17, 7, and 3, with a mean of
6.9.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  February 28, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation de KT7H

Here was one more uneventful week, still at the bottom of the solar
cycle.  February 21 and 26 had some geomagnetic activity, but
otherwise all was quiet.  On most days the sunspot number was zero,
and on every day the solar flux was less than the average for the
previous 90 days.

For the DX contest this weekend, don't expect any big change.  Solar
flux should continue in the low seventies, and don't expect any
unsettled or stormy geomagnetic conditions until March 7-10 and
again around March 16.  Based on the previous solar rotation, the
solar flux could go to the high seventies toward the middle of
March.  Twenty meters should remain the best band for worldwide
propagation during daylight, followed by 40 meters after dark.

Sunspot Numbers for February 20 through 26 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 12
and 0 with a mean of 3.3.  10.7 cm flux was 72.6, 73.2, 73.5, 74.6,
74.6, 74.1 and 74, with a mean of 73.8.  Estimated planetary A
indices for the same period were 4, 10, 6, 9, 8, 5, and 13, with a
mean of 7.9.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10  ARLP010
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  March 7, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP010
ARLP010 Propagation de KT7H

There was no change in solar flux or sunspot activity last week, as
we continue to experience the bottom of the solar cycle.  There were
some geomagnetic disturbances though, with the worst conditions on
the last day of February when the Planetary A Index reached 32 and
the highest Planetary K index was 6.

Over the next few weeks the geomagnetic field should stay
predominantly quiet, except that a recurrent coronal hole with high
speed solar wind could rotate into view around March 26 and 27.
Solar flux should stay in the low to mid seventies, with the Sun
mostly spotless.

Last week this bulletin reported that the solar flux on February 26
was 74.  A closer approximation is 73.8 for that date.  This does
not change the average flux for the week.

Sunspot Numbers for February 27 through March 5 were 0 each day with
a mean of 0.  10.7 cm flux was 73.8, 72.8, 73.5, 72.3, 74, 74 and
74.6, with a mean of 73.6.  Estimated planetary A indices for the
same period were 20, 32, 10, 12, 5, 4, and 7, with a mean of 12.9.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11  ARLP011
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  March 14, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de KT7H

Sunspot activity was up last week, but solar flux was about the
same, average values increasing by a little over one point.
Geomagnetic activity was lower.

Over the next few weeks solar flux is expected to stay right in the
mid seventies.  Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase due to
recurring coronal holes around March 26 and 27.  This is an echo of
the rise in A index that we saw on February 28.

Next week will be the Spring equinox.  Expect improved conditions as
periods of daylight equalize between the southern and northern
hemispheres.  Due to continued low flux values, night propagation on
20 meters will still be a problem, as will daytime propagation on 10
and 15 meters.  After dark the best bands will be 30 and 40 meters.
Best propagation on 20 meters will continue to be in the morning
after sunrise toward the east, and in the late afternoon and early
evening toward the west.

Sunspot Numbers for March 6 through 12 were 11, 12, 26, 26, 17, 15
and 21 with a mean of 18.3.  10.7 cm flux was 75.4, 74.1, 74.7,
75.1, 74.7, 74.3 and 74.3, with a mean of 74.7.  Estimated planetary
A indices for the same period were 8, 8, 5, 3, 3, 4, and 12, with a
mean of 6.1.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13  ARLP013
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  March 29, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP013
ARLP013 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity turned down over the past week.  Hard to believe,
since we still seemed to be already at the bottom of the solar
cycle.  The average solar flux for the previous 90 days has been 75
for quite some time now, but on March 20 it became 74.  The solar
flux on every day this week was below that average level.  Since
the average value for 90 days has dropped, and we consistently see
solar flux values below the average, this indicates that we really
have not seen a turn up in the cycle.

After the first of the month the solar flux is expected to rise a
few points.  The K and A index is expected to turn down in time for
the DX contest this weekend, but solar flux will still be low.

Sunspot Numbers for March 20 through 26 were 23, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and
0 with a mean of 3.3.  10.7 cm flux was 71.5, 70.5, 70.6, 70.7, 71,
70.6 and 69.8, with a mean of 70.7, and estimated planetary A
indices for the same period were 3, 5, 9, 4, 6, 12, and 14, with a
mean of 7.6.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 15  ARLP015
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  April 11, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP015
ARLP015 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity was up last week.  Flux went as high as 80, and then
on Monday morning there was a big eruption on the Sun that ejected a
large amount of matter toward earth.  It was originally thought that
perhaps this might cause a big disturbance here on Wednesday, but
effects weren't really felt until Thursday.  As this was being
written Friday morning UTC, the K index was 7 at the 0300z and 0600z
readings.

''The eruption seemed to blow open a hole in the Sun's corona,'' said
Dr. Barbara Thompson, a SOHO scientist.

Images of this eruption taken by the SOHO satellite can be seen at
the following web site:
http://pao.gsfc.nasa.gov/gsfc/newsroom/flash/flash.htm

Watch for solar flux to drop soon to the low seventies, but then
jump back to 80 by the end of the month.

Sunspot Numbers for April 3 through 9 were 46, 36, 36, 28, 16, 27
and 30 with a mean of 31.3.  10.7 cm flux was 78.8, 78.5, 80.2,
78.1, 76.8, 76.1 and 78.1, with a mean of 78.1, and estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 12, 8, 11, 7, 4, and 5, with a mean of
7.7.

The JA CW DX Contest is this weekend, and since the object is to
work Japanese stations, here are some path projections to Japan:

From Seattle check 80 meters from 0930 to 1330z, 40 meters from 0830
to 1500z, 20 meters from 2100 to 0000z and 0300 to 0700z, and 15
meters for marginal conditions from 2230 to 0000z.

From Los Angeles check 80 meters from 0900 to 1400z, 40 meters from
0800 to 1430z, 20 meters from 0200 to 0800z, 15 meters from 2230 to
0300z.

From Salt Lake City check 80 meters from 0930 to 1300z, 40 meters
from 0830 to 1400z, 20 meters from 2030 to 0700z and 15 meters for
marginal conditions from 2200 to 0200z.

From Chicago check 80 meters from 0930 to 1100z, 40 meters from 1000
to 1200z, and 20 meters from 2100 to 0000z.

From Atlanta check 80 meters from 0930 to 1100z, 40 meters from 0930
to 1130z, and 20 meters around 1330z and 0300z.

From Cleveland check 80 meters from 0930 to 1030z, 40 meters from
0900 to 1130z, and 20 meters from 2100 to 2300z.

From Dallas check 80 meters from 0930 to 1200z, 40 meters from 0830
to 1300z, and 20 meters from 0330 to 0600z, and 15 meters for
marginal conditions from 2230 to 0130z and 0330 to 0600z.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  April 18, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de KT7H

Average solar flux was down a little with sunspot numbers up a bit
over the past week.  The most significant event was the delayed
reaction to the big solar mass ejection, which drove the Planetary A
index to 38 and K index up to 7 on April 11.

Over the next few days watch for a retreat in the solar flux from
the high seventies down to the low seventies until the end of the
first week in May, when it will start creeping up to the eighties
again.  Solar flux is expected to be above 80 by May 10.  Look for
geomagnetic disturbances to appear again around April 24 and 25.
All of this forecast is based upon activity seen during the last
solar rotation, and of course new activity could appear at any time.

Sunspot Numbers for April 10 through 16 were 47, 31, 30, 34, 45, 39
and 33 with a mean of 37.  10.7 cm flux was 77.6, 77.1, 76.4, 78.8,
77.4, 78.7 and 75, with a mean of 77.3, and estimated planetary A
indices were 10, 38, 9, 8, 4, 4, and 12, with a mean of 12.1.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17  ARLP017
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  April 25, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP017
ARLP017 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity was down last week, with the daily solar flux falling
below the 74 average for the previous 90 days.  The average flux for
the week was 7 points below the previous week, and the average
sunspot number was down by about 26.  The really active geomagnetic
day was April 17 when the A index was 26, and the quiet day was May
20 when the K index dropped to zero.  Although many have called for
the end of the previous solar cycle, we still seem to be stuck in
the doldrums.

Solar flux should peak for the short term around or just above the
mid seventies at the beginning of May, and then fall possibly below
seventy in about three to four weeks from now.

Sunspot Numbers for April 17 through 23 were 29, 13, 12, 0, 0, 12
and 13 with a mean of 11.3.  10.7 cm flux was 71.7, 70.1, 69.9,
69.7, 70.1, 70.7 and 68.9, with a mean of 70.2, and estimated
planetary A indices were 26, 16, 13, 4, 16, 18, and 9, with a mean
of 14.6.

I would like to end this bulletin observing the recent death of Ed
Tilton, W1HDQ.  He wrote the propagation bulletin for many years.  I
took it over from him when he became ill during the peak of the last
solar cycle.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18  ARLP018
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  May 2, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity was up a tiny bit last week, but the daily solar flux
was still below the previous 90 day average of 74 on each day.
Solar flux peaked slightly at 73.1 on April 27.

April 26 to 29 had very quiet geomagnetic indices, with an A index
of 4 each day and many periods with a K index of zero, the best
there is for HF conditions.

The projection for the rest of May indicates more flat conditions,
but of course this is based only upon the previous solar rotation.
Since there has been no significant activity over the past month,
then there are no known really active regions to rotate into view.

Sunspot Numbers for April 24 through 30 were 13, 12, 32, 17, 17, 12
and 0 with a mean of 14.7.  10.7 cm flux was 69.8, 68.7, 70.9, 73.1,
72.4, 71.9 and 72.6, with a mean of 71.3.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 15, 7, 4, 4, 4, 4, and 11, with a mean of 49.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19  ARLP019
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  May 9, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de KT7H

Geomagnetic conditions became progressively quiet over the week,
after disturbed conditions began the month.  ARLP018 mentioned an
erroneous average A index though, with the actual average as 7, not
49.  The A index this week averaged 9.6.  Solar flux and sunspot
numbers were still the same, stuck in the doldrums with no sign of
increased activity from a new solar cycle.

A new projection from the NOAA Space Environment Service Center
forecasts a smoothed solar flux of 100 for this July, but so far the
predicted values have been increasingly ahead of actual measured
values.  It shows the expected smoothed solar flux for January
through April of this year as 77, 80, 84 and 87, while the actual
monthly averages have been 74, 73.8, 73.5 and 74.5.

The projected smoothed flux for May is 91, but combining the actual
flux for the first eight days of May with subsequent projected
values for the month shows an average of only 71.4, so the gap
between the actual average values versus the projected smoothed
values has grown over January through May from 3, 6.2, 9.5, 12.5 to
19.6.  This same forecast projects a smoothed solar flux of 149 and
sunspot number of 99 one year from now.  One can only hope that
reality will catch up with the projection.

Values for May are expected to stay the same, in the low seventies
for solar flux with minimal sunspot numbers.  Possible disturbances
could appear around May 13 to 21, with the worst periods around the
14th and 15th and the 18th and 19th, and disturbances again around
May 28 and 29.

As the days get longer, expect noise on the lower frequencies to
rise, and less of the good low band propagation that we experienced
on winter nights.  Particularly if we see a rise in solar flux, look
for longer openings to the west on 20 meters in the evening.

Sunspot Numbers for May 1 through 7 were 0, 0, 13, 11, 11, 11 and 11
with a mean of 8.1.  10.7 cm flux was 72.2, 72.1, 71.1, 70.9, 72.3,
72.1 and 72, with a mean of 71.8, and estimated planetary A indices
were 20, 16, 9, 7, 6, 4, and 5, with a mean of 9.6.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20  ARLP020
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  May 16, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de KT7H

Last week was very quiet in terms of solar and geomagnetic activity.
Average solar flux was about the same last week as the week before,
the average sunspot number was up about 10 points, and the average
planetary A index was down by almost half.  Conditions haven't
stayed calm, however, because on May 16 the Boulder A index jumped
to 33.  This is an indication of a geomagnetic disturbance, which
correlates with absorption rather than reflection of radio signals.

Geomagnetic conditions are already settling down, and should be
quiet again this weekend and beyond.  The next predicted upset
should be centered around May 28.  No increase in solar flux is
foreseen, but that is because these predictions are based upon the
rotation of the Sun, and there hasn't been any real sunspot or solar
flux activity in the past month which might return and cause an
improvement in conditions.  As mentioned in ARLP019, conditions are
unusually quiet, considering how long the solar minimum has lasted.

20 meters remains the best band for worldwide communications, with
later openings to the west as daylight extends into the evening.

Sunspot Numbers for May 8 through 14 were 23, 14, 23, 26, 12, 15 and
17 with a mean of 18.6.  10.7 cm flux was 71.9, 71.6, 72, 72.3,
72.2, 73.8 and 73.5, with a mean of 72.5, and estimated planetary A
indices were 5, 6, 5, 7, 3, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21  ARLP021
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  May 23, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de KT7H

At last there is a bit of solar activity to report.  There was a big
geomagnetic upset at the start of the period, with a planetary A
index of 53 on May 15.  This indicates highly disturbed conditions,
where absorption rather than reflection of radio waves is the rule,
particularly over polar paths.  It was caused by a parallel ribbon
solar flare on May 13, and the resulting solar wind had a big
effect.

Solar flux rose over this week, and peaked at 84.8 on Wednesday.
This week was the first time in awhile that the daily flux has risen
above the 90 day average of 74.

W4VOS sent a nice letter regarding the recent lack of activity.  He
mentioned the news item from propagation bulletin ARLP003 in January
which talked about an American Astronomical Society meeting in
Toronto, where scientists from Yale and NASA said that this next
solar cycle should show a decrease in overall activity compared to
previous cycles.

He also noted in his letter that after the last solar minimum in
1986, activity jumped right back, and there was no question that the
new cycle was on a roll.  This time there is a much longer period of
low activity between cycles.

Currently there is wide disagreement between experts on when higher
activity will resume, and by how much.  As an example, NOAA and the
National Geophysical Data Center's estimates for the sunspot count
for June vary by four to one.

20 meters remains the best band for worldwide propagation during
daylight hours.

Sunspot Numbers for May 15 through 21 were 15, 27, 47, 32, 51, 57
and 79 with a mean of 44.  10.7 cm flux was 73, 72.2, 72.8, 74.1,
74.2, 79.1 and 84.8, with a mean of 75.7, and estimated planetary A
indices were 53, 12, 12, 6, 4, 6, and 5, with a mean of 14.
NNNN
/EX

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22  ARLP022
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  May 30, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP022
ARLP022 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar activity declined slightly from the recent peak, which was
centered around May 21.  Propagation has been very good, with
worldwide openings on 20 meters into the late evening here on the
West coast.  Last week the solar flux was above the 90 day average
of 74 on every day.  A new region of sunspots appeared on May 23 and
again on May 27.  In the previous week one new region appeared on
May 16, two on May 17, two on May 19, and one on May 21.  At last
conditions seem to be pulling out of the doldrums.

Geomagnetic conditions were upset on May 27 when the planetary A
index was 21.  The Planetary K index jumped to a very high value of
6 at 0300z, indicating a severe disturbance, but it then dropped
back to 2 by 0900z, a very stable quiet value.

Based on recent conditions, the next solar rotation is expected to
produce a decline in solar flux to the low seventies until June 11,
when the flux should rise back toward 80.  Of course this assumes no
new activity, and new activity from the new solar cycle is what we
hope for.

Sunspot Numbers for May 22 through 28 were 66, 58, 52, 50, 38, 43
and 25 with a mean of 47.4.  10.7 cm flux was 81, 76.2, 76.9, 78,
80, 78.3 and 77.4, with a mean of 78.3, and estimated planetary A
indices were 4, 3, 6, 5, 8, 21, and 6, with a mean of 7.6.

(This bulletin is still written by Tad Cook, who recently changed
his callsign from KT7H to K7VVV.)
NNNN
/EX