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Conference back40::soapbox

Title:Soapbox. Just Soapbox.
Notice:No more new notes
Moderator:WAHOO::LEVESQUEONS
Created:Thu Nov 17 1994
Last Modified:Fri Jun 06 1997
Last Successful Update:Fri Jun 06 1997
Number of topics:862
Total number of notes:339684

479.0. "Monte Hall Problem" by RUSURE::EDP (Always mount a scratch monkey.) Wed Jun 28 1995 13:16

    A game show contestant is shown three doors, behind one of which is a
    fabulous prize.  Behind each of the other two is an unwanted goat.  The
    contestant picks any door (at random, since they have no other
    information).

    Depending on whether the contestant selected the door with the prize,
    one or two of the other doors have goats behind them.  The rules of the
    game require the game show host to now open a door with a goat behind
    it -- either the only such door or a random choice of the two doors,
    with equal probability.

    Once a goat has been revealed, leaving two doors, the contestant is
    given the opportunity to remain with their original choice or to switch
    to the other door.

    If the contestant switches doors, what is the chance the prize is
    behind the new door?    


				-- edp
    
    
Public key fingerprint:  8e ad 63 61 ba 0c 26 86  32 0a 7d 28 db e7 6f 75
To find PGP, read note 2688.4 in Humane::IBMPC_Shareware.
T.RTitleUserPersonal
Name
DateLines
479.1NOTIME::SACKSGerald Sacks ZKO2-3/N30 DTN:381-2085Wed Jun 28 1995 13:171
Unwanted goat?  Speciesist!
479.2BOXORN::HAYSSome things are worth dying forWed Jun 28 1995 13:191
2/3 chance of winning if switching.
479.4POWDML::LAUERLittle Chamber of PasshionWed Jun 28 1995 13:272
    
    Oh no, not this question again 8^/.
479.50% with my luck...GAAS::BRAUCHERWed Jun 28 1995 13:276
    
      Yes, 2/3 of the time you win by switching.  Your initial odds
     were 1/3.  They still are if you stay.  But you know that the
     rest of the time the prize is behind the other door, so 2/3.
    
      bb
479.6GRANPA::MWANNEMACHERNRA memberWed Jun 28 1995 13:323
    
    
    No, because there's a bunch of $100 bills shoved up the goats arse....
479.7I know this oneCSLALL::HENDERSONLearning to leanWed Jun 28 1995 13:325


 
  The train from Chicago left at 8AM?
479.9more's the pityPENUTS::DDESMAISONSperson BWed Jun 28 1995 13:443
  i guess edp never gets tired of this one.

479.10CONSLT::MCBRIDEReformatted to fit your screenWed Jun 28 1995 13:451
    I don't know but Monty is wearing black shoes.
479.11NOTIME::SACKSGerald Sacks ZKO2-3/N30 DTN:381-2085Wed Jun 28 1995 13:461
I concur -- Monte Hall _is_ a problem.
479.12BIGQ::SILVADiabloWed Jun 28 1995 13:472
eeewwwweee..... the goats are filled with drugs wrapped in condoms. 
479.13CSLALL::HENDERSONLearning to leanWed Jun 28 1995 13:529


 How do you get to Monte Hall?




 Practice, my boy, practice
479.14MKOTS3::JMARTINI press on toward the goalWed Jun 28 1995 14:003
    Can I pose a logic question here or is this limited to Monty Dull?
    
    -Jack
479.15LANDO::OLIVER_BWed Jun 28 1995 14:432
Monty Hall's problem?  Reports are that he 
suffered from that Wade Boggs disease.
479.16WAHOO::LEVESQUEMr BlisterWed Jun 28 1995 14:473
    The way I heard it, Diane Parkinson was suffering from the 'kiss
    n tell for mucho bucks' syndrome. That's the one where you engage in
    consentual sex, but when you get dumped you sue.
479.17NOTIME::SACKSGerald Sacks ZKO2-3/N30 DTN:381-2085Wed Jun 28 1995 14:481
Monty and Carol behind door #1?
479.18LANDO::OLIVER_BWed Jun 28 1995 15:022
The Diane Parkinson's Disease??
Dreadful.
479.19LANDO::OLIVER_BWed Jun 28 1995 15:041
Consensual.
479.20NOTIME::SACKSGerald Sacks ZKO2-3/N30 DTN:381-2085Wed Jun 28 1995 15:052
Was Diane Parkinson a replacement for Carol?  Carol was the lovely curtain-
opener in my LMaD-watching days.
479.21CSLALL::HENDERSONLearning to leanWed Jun 28 1995 15:114


 We're not confusing Mr. Hall with Bob Barker are we?
479.22LANDO::OLIVER_BWed Jun 28 1995 15:151
Oh, I don't know, those game show hosts all look alike.
479.23I'm sure she'll correct me if I'm wrongWAHOO::LEVESQUEMr BlisterWed Jun 28 1995 15:162
     It was Barker that was/is being sued by Parkinson. I'm not aware of
    any lawsuits against Hall; I just assumed Bonnie aliased the two.
479.24LANDO::OLIVER_BWed Jun 28 1995 15:191
Now does Barker wear a collar?
479.25TROOA::TRP109::Chrisdedicated sybariteWed Jun 28 1995 16:332
This sounds like a problem for Gene Haag.... except I guess he 
would want the door with the goat!
479.26EVMS::MORONEYThe gene pool needs chlorine....Wed Jun 28 1995 16:347
re .12:

> eeewwwweee..... the goats are filled with drugs wrapped in condoms. 
  ^^^^^^^^^^


That's a sheep, not a goat.
479.27BOXORN::HAYSSome things are worth dying forWed Jun 28 1995 16:351
Didn't someone just say Gene Haag and sheep?
479.28ba-a-a-a-a humbugCSSREG::BROWNJust Visiting This PlanetWed Jun 28 1995 17:041
    not to be confused with Monty Python or Monte Carlo...
479.29CONSLT::MCBRIDEReformatted to fit your screenWed Jun 28 1995 17:051
    Yes, it was Bark Bobber not Monty Hall.  
479.30MOLAR::DELBALSOI (spade) my (dogface)Wed Jun 28 1995 18:392
I'll take "Vietnamese Basketball Stars" for one thousand, Alex.

479.31SMURF::BINDERFather, Son, and Holy SpigotWed Jun 28 1995 18:471
    And the answer is "Hoop Chi Minh."
479.32Oh, but look what was inside the thing you traded awayDECWIN::RALTOI hate summerThu Jun 29 1995 03:308
    >> No, because there's a bunch of $100 bills shoved up the goats arse....
    
    Bwah-hah-hah!... spoken like a true LMaD fan, because of course
    hiding the real prize inside a bogus prize is exactly the kind
    of thing they used to do on that show (though never in that
    exact orifice, of course).
    
    Chris
479.33ALPHAZ::HARNEYJohn A HarneyThu Jun 29 1995 21:544
    
    Monty Hall topic, people.

    \john
479.34TROOA::COLLINSMy hovercraft is full of eels.Thu Jun 29 1995 22:149
479.35MOLAR::DELBALSOI (spade) my (dogface)Fri Jun 30 1995 00:302
3-card Huntz

479.36ALPHAZ::HARNEYJohn A HarneyFri Jun 30 1995 01:416
re: .34

I obviously need a vacation.

I'll take one.
\john
479.37POWDML::LAUERLittle Chamber of PasshionFri Jun 30 1995 12:462
    
    I thought you just HAD a vacation!
479.38NOTIME::SACKSGerald Sacks ZKO2-3/N30 DTN:381-2085Fri Jun 30 1995 13:251
So is it Monte or Monty?
479.39TROOA::COLLINSMy hovercraft is full of eels.Fri Jun 30 1995 13:335
    
    Monte, the card game.
    
    Monty, the game show host.
    
479.40SMURF::BINDERFather, Son, and Holy SpigotFri Jun 30 1995 13:473
    .39
    
    Monte is not a card game, it is a grifters' trick.
479.41TROOA::COLLINSMy hovercraft is full of eels.Fri Jun 30 1995 13:567
    
    .40:
    
    Webster's says:  "a card game in which..."
    
    But beyond that, I ain't gonna argue about words with The Binder.
    
479.42SMURF::BINDERFather, Son, and Holy SpigotFri Jun 30 1995 14:226
    .41
    
    John, I stand corrected.  I'd never before heard of the kind of monte
    described in Webster.  The monte I know uses only two (or three, in a
    variant) cards and is similar in purpose and effect to the old shell
    game.  I used to be a very proficient operator of three-card monte.
479.43OOTOOL::CHELSEAMostly harmless.Fri Jun 30 1995 15:271
    Well, it's a game played with cards, so technically....
479.44SMURF::BINDERFather, Son, and Holy SpigotFri Jun 30 1995 15:364
    .43
    
    Get with the program.  The first four words in .42 are "John, I stand
    corrected."
479.45OOTOOL::CHELSEAMostly harmless.Fri Jun 30 1995 15:395
    So?  Just because you don't want to talk about it any more, doesn't
    mean I have to abandon the subject.
    
    And I bet you didn't stand at all.  I bet you sat through the whole
    thing.  So there.
479.46DID ALOT OF CHARITY WORKPENUTS::COMEAUFri Jun 30 1995 15:4113
    
    
    	Monty Hall from Lets Make a Deal was the national celebrity
    	chairman for teh Illitis and Colitus Foundation.
    
    		Did lots of good work for this cause but never got
    	the BIG telethons like Jerry Lewis. 
    
    
    
    			DAC
    
    
479.47LANDO::OLIVER_BFri Jun 30 1995 17:121
Illitis a candlestickus for him.
479.48SMURF::BINDERFather, Son, and Holy SpigotFri Jun 30 1995 17:168
    .45
    
    > And I bet you didn't stand at all.  I bet you sat through the whole
    > thing.  So there.
    
    	stand  v.  8.a. To be in a specified state or condition.
    
    American Heritage Dictionary, Third Edition.
479.49WAHOO::LEVESQUEthe countdown is onFri Jun 30 1995 17:181
    Ileitis
479.50LANDO::OLIVER_BFri Jun 30 1995 17:221
Ha!
479.51DECLNE::SHEPARDIt's the Republicans' faultFri Jun 30 1995 17:323
Now what was the question?

Mikey
479.52Another variation of "I know where you got those shoes"....PERFOM::LICEA_KANEwhen it's comin' from the leftFri Jun 30 1995 17:366
    Binder is still right about one thing.
    
    Three-card monte is *not* a card game.
    It is a scam.  A whole scam.  And nothing but a scam.
    
    								-mr. bill
479.53MOLAR::DELBALSOI (spade) my (dogface)Wed Jul 05 1995 15:544
>        -< Another variation of "I know where you got those shoes".... >-

Let me guess. Is the answer, "You've got them on your feet"?

479.54TROOA::COLLINSThe Greater Action AreaThu Jul 20 1995 20:445
    
    Okay, pedants.  If you're driving along, and a hubcap comes off your
    front right wheel, will the hubcap fly ahead of the car (at least,
    temporarily) or fall immediately behind?  And why?
    
479.55spin controlHBAHBA::HAAStime compressedThu Jul 20 1995 20:488
Like a lot of other things in life, it's all a matter of timing.

In this case, it's all in the ejection. If'n it's comes off prematurely,
the hubcap immediately falls down and is left behind. But if'n it has
enough prowess, it could readily stand up to the conditions and fly
ahead.

TTom
479.56LEADIN::REITHThu Jul 20 1995 20:5430
    
    >Okay, pedants.  If you're driving along, and a hubcap comes off your
    >front right wheel, will the hubcap fly ahead of the car (at least,
    >temporarily) or fall immediately behind?  And why?
    
    It all depends on what you were doing at the time it came off.
    
    If you were taking a left corner, it would go straight as you turn.
    
    If you were "smoking" the tires (and no I don't smoke my tires,
    it clogs the pipes) it would fly ahead.
    
    If its still attached to your tire as it falls off the car, then it
    would roll ahead of your (now hard to control) car.
    
    If you were braking, it would also fly ahead (as your car slowed down
    but the hubcap didn't).
    
    If you were just cruising along, then the increased air resistance as
    the thing left the tire would cause it to fall behind.  Also, when it
    hit the ground, it would be rotating at the same rate as the tire. 
    But, it is a smaller diameter, so its linear speed is less, and thus
    the ground would also cause it to slow down.
    
    My personal experience has been that this only happens on a dark night,
    so you could not see the thing even if it did fly ahead of you.  Also,
    it usually lands in a yard with a big dog who is now mad about being
    hit by a hubcap.
    
    	Skip
479.57MEKCUF::COVINGTONWhen the going gets weird...Fri Jul 21 1995 03:454
    Wow.
    At first I was going to say there was no way it could fly ahead, but
    Skip came up with two bonafide ways for it to do just that. 
    Very insightful. 
479.58DEVLPR::DKILLORANLove In An ElevatorFri Jul 21 1995 12:1112
    
    > If you were taking a left corner, it would go straight as you turn.
    >           .          .          .          .          .          .
    >           .          .          .          .          .          .
    >           .          .          .          .          .          .
    > it usually lands in a yard with a big dog who is now mad about being
    > hit by a hubcap.
    
    It sounds like there are some interesting stories in there someplace !
    
    :-)
    Dan
479.59Watch the movie and count the 'capsSPEZKO::FRASERMobius Loop; see other sideFri Jul 21 1995 12:485
        Or, if  it  was the Mustang as used in "Bullit" the hubcaps would
        magically regenerate, all by themselves...
        
        &y