| Re: .3
> Now that the Amiga has matured, it's time for Jay to start designing
> the next generation computer.
Nope. Miner has retired (I believe he is in his sixties, but I am bad
at guessing people's ages). Officially, he is a consultant to Commodore,
but I believe that the arrangement is that they pay him big bucks to
keep him from working for anyone else. From talking to him, I got the
feeling that all he really wants to do now is enjoy his "golden years"
(and play with flight simulators!).
At AmiExpo in New York last Fall, I managed to have a long talk with
Miner. (He had been wandering the exhibit floor, gotten tired, and
was resting in a empty booth.) He is definitely bitter over how
Commodore has mismanaged the Amiga in the past, but he does think
that they lived up to every promise they made the engineering staff.
One of the things that made him angry was the delay before the Amiga
2000 came out. Miner and his staff were busy designing the Amiga
2000 (code named "Ranger") at the same time the German branch of
Commodore was doing the initial Sidecar design. The Germans completed
the design of the Sidecar, and Commodore began doing their usual, "So
should be start selling these things or what?" routine.
The problem was the German team then said that the Sidecar was a
inefficient solution to IBM compatibility, and that a follow on
Amiga needed to be designed in order that supported internal expansion
with both Amiga and IBM slots. Unfortunately, the German machine
had the same major design goals as the Miner designed "Ranger."
Commodore could not afford to have to Engineering groups designing
the same machine, and so had to make a decision. (At the time,
Commodore was at its poorest. It had been losing money at a
tremendous rate for a long time. It was about to layoff a huge
number of employees.)
What it boiled down to was that the Germans said they could have the
machine ready to ship by Summer 1986. Miner's group claimed a similar
deadline, but the German group was considered to be a much more
reliable design group. Miner's group got the ax.
No doubt some of you saw the Summer 1986 date and thought that I
made a typing mistake. After all, the Amiga 2000 didn't ship until
Summer 1987 in Europe and until Fall 1987 in North America. The
German team slipped a year. According to Miner, this had major
impact on the Amiga program.
First, Commodore was expecting to have a new Amiga to sell all during
1986-87. They started winding down the Amiga 1000. Commodore stopped
advertising saving their money for the big push when the new machine
came out. The Amiga 1000 lost momentum, and Commodore shut down the
production lines. It was as if the Amiga ceased to exist. (From
1985 to Summer 1987, Commodore only sold 140,000 Amigas. Since
Summer 1987, Commodore has sold an additional 560,000 Amigas.)
Miner is very bitter about this. He believes that the Amiga lost
a major opportunity to knock out the Mac, and to become a respected
alternative to IBM. He despairs of every catching up. Particularly
since some of what had been unique features of the Amiga have been
picked up by the competition.
I think that his analysis is wrong about the future of the Amiga.
I think that the numbers very clearly show that the Amiga will
become a major player in the future. The Amiga is outselling
the Mac at a significant rate. (Yep, Commodore sold more Amigas
last year than Apple sold Macs.) Assuming that Apple and Commodore
sell machines at the current rate, the Amiga installed base will
be within spitting distance of the Mac installed base by the end of
1990.
Things aren't all rosy yet. The Amiga hasn't been accepted as
a business computer yet. Commodore has been most successful in
selling the Amiga into the home and hacker market. So, there is
a danger that the Amiga might win in numbers, but lack having
high end software developed for it. High end software (I am
thinking of thinks like AutoCAD) is only developed for business
machines because only business customers are willing to pay the
high end price.
I don't think that the Amiga is out of the game in the Commercial
world. It take time to crack that market. The Mac was a toy computer
bought by high end hobbyists for almost three years of its life.
(I remember one article that stated the Mac was only bought by
nerds and freaks wearing propeller beanies.) I remember reading
trade journals that would be discussing some Fortune 500 company's
Data Processing Department, and there would statements like, "Oh,
yeah, that toy company tried to sell us some computers. We managed
to keep a straight face when the salesman took us to lunch. We didn't
even laugh about their Mac until the guy left." So, I believe it is
possible for Commodore to break into the business market. Whether
they pull it off is an open question.
The Amiga has some distinct advantages over the Mac SE: color, faster
graphics though hardware, lower price, expandability, a multi-tasking
operating system. These are strengths that Commodore can use to
make in roads with.
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