Conference school::sports_memorabilia

I believe Beckett's prices are based on surveys. This is why you get the high
and low prices. The high prices probably come  in  from dealers and investors
the low prices probably come in from the collectors ;-) It's like one guy who
sent in a  letter  said - "Why would anyone send  in  lower prices since it's
going to bring down their investment or cause them to lower their prices".

Probably most dealers and collectors feel the 1963 set price has remained the
same while some of the cards in it have fluctuated in price. I'm sure if Pete
Rose makes the Hall of Fame it will  go  up even more than an annual increase
due to aging one more year.  As far  as  Stargell goes, the interest probably
isn't there anymore.

I think most of the older sets, pre-1970 anyway have probably peaked and will
not see the massive value increases that were experienced in the mid-80's.  I
think this is due to players in these sets have cycled out of baseball and no
longer may  make  the Hall of Fame.  If any sets get big increases it will be
late 60's  and  early 70's sets now because they include many players who are
still around and many players who may make the Hall of Fame.

Another reason they've probably  peaked  is  that  who can really afford them
any longer.  Not your average collector anyway and most kids have no interest
in the older cards and probably less and less in the game of baseball itself.
I think the investors are no longer there either because the growth has flat-
tened out.

Occasionally you hear about someone getting back into collecting,  but not as
much before when baseball cards  received  big  press on their values and in-
vestment potential.  People probably pulled old cards out of the closet, rea-
lized they were close to completing some set  and went off trying to complete
it when  prices  weren't too bad.  Now you may be looking at spending a 1000$
trying to complete something if you're missing the wrong cards.  Common sense
says who wants to spend 1000$ on a piece of cardboard.

John
    

    thanks for the note John.  I agree with your reasoning on peaking
    values, but my question was not concerned so much with that.
    
    It just amazed me, being an old mathematician, that 25-40 different
    cards within a set can bounce up or down $.25-$20.00, sometimes
    affecting ONLY the high end price or ONLY the low end price; sometime
    affecting as many as 100 cards (e.g. when Common Players 1-109
    increase by a quarter to 50 cts); Stargell dropping $25; Freehan RC up
    $5;  etc...  etc...
    
    ...but yet, over the last 3 months the Complete Set price hasn't budged
    a penny, up or down!
    
    Clearly, I am making an assumption here, that if I took out my trusty
    calculator or spreadsheet and added up each individual card's worth, 
    that the totals would be the same as the overall $3600/$5400.  Maybe 
    that's a bad assumption - perhaps the sum of the parts is not equal to the 
    whole?
    
    When I have a free 1/2 hour, I'll have to check that out.
    
    						Stan

    
    You'll find the individual cards in a set will almost always
    add up to more than the complete set price, sometimes alot
    more (at least using Beckett as your guide).  When selling
    a set as a whole there is usually a hefty discount to the
    price of the individual cards.   Beckett may not change the
    set price for 3 months because it knows of none that sold,
    nobody reported a set moving so the price don't change.
    
    Just guessing, but remember to keep repeating "It's only a guide,
    it's only a guide..."
    
    Jeff
    

    Jeff's right - the single card totals will always add up to a lot
    more and like I said,  since Beckett's is based on surveys no one
    felt the complete set price has changed, only some of the regular
    cards.
    
    John

I think John had it right when he said that the input for Becketts comes
from people reporting transactions.  The volume of single card sales should
be higher that the number of sets that are exchanged over a period of time.
I'm sure that Becketts determines the full set price from sales of full sets,
not from the summ of all the cards.  During the past 3 months I wouldn't expect
there to be many sets of '63 Topps to have exchanged hands.  That's why the
price has stayed the same.  

Dan

    All correct so far----Have any of you actually taken the time time to
    fill in the survey.  It also asks for transaction information ( how
    many sets have you sold and for what price).  Plus if you look at 
    other market data ( other BB rags and the larger shows you will
    discover the "street price"
    
    Let's keep this discussion going
    
    The variables that we have are:
    
    Beckett 
    Other baseball guides
    Adds in for sale magazines like Sports Collectors Digest
    Prices at shows
    Dealer prices
    Cumulative prices for all cards in the set
    
    If we were to spreadsheet information for one set from each sport
    for each 5 year period beginning with 1950 we might learn some
    of the market dynamics.
    
    Volunteers?
    I'll research some of the sets-
    Who else wats to volunteer to do other sets?
    Spreadsheet?
    
    Another thing to consider-Why will prices in Becketts baseball change over
    the winter? Hockey in the summer?
    
    Does Jim Beckett own any 92 Bowman Baseball?
    Mike 

    
>    Does Jim Beckett own any 92 Bowman Baseball?
    
    At this point I'm sure he owns whatever he wants .. and price probably
    is not much of a consideration 8^).
    
    Greg
    
    PS - actually that's an interesting quesition ... I wonder what kind of
    collector/incestor he is?
     

    
    
    	RE: last note
    
    	    How many different types of INCESTERS are there?
    
    							Joe

    Mike, I take it your comment regarding Dr. Beckett owning 1992 Bowman
    is in reference to the  skyrocketing  Bowman prices over the last few
    months. In other words, he can  "fix"  prices  if he wants on certain
    products that he has interest or investment in.  I'm sure that's pos-
    sible, but I think it's unlikely. If that's true, he must own lots of
    Topps Finest, 1993 OPC Baseball,  1992 Fleer Update Sets and anything
    else that's got a hefty price  on  it.  He must not own any UD SP be-
    cause that came out pretty low.
    
    Look at the SCD price guide and see who helps sets the prices.  Other
    dealers of course and who's not  to say they don't inflate prices for
    their own purposes.  I'm sure dealers get  together  before shows and
    discuss what should sell for what, check out each other's prices etc.
    
    Sure Beckett's is a "guide",  but  there  are  many dealers who won't
    even sell single cards until they're listed in Beckett's. Go to shows
    and you'll always  hear  dealers quote Beckett's. Even in here people
    will list Beckett's prices when they sell something.  Beckett's has a
    strong reputation.  There would be a tremendous backlash if it turned
    out that price fixing was involved.
    
    As far as why do prices change  for  baseball in winter etc. it seems
    like prices change every month  and while I don't watch prices like a
    hawk it seems usually prices go down  for  newer issues in the winter
    and then pick up again as spring  and  summer  roll around during the
    season. More interest in baseball at that time.
    
    John

    Thanks John.
    There has been a lot of rumor regarding 92 Bowman and Jim B.  Last
    month Bowman decided to get rid of the rest of it's stock and sold the
    remaining boxes to it's employees for 5.00/box.  Great move --- I
    wonder how much was sold.
    
    As far as prices changing in the winter for baseball - It seems
    rediculous to me unless a guy is put in HOF or retires or gets
    injured-He didn't get any more hits or pitch a shutout etc.
    Why should I have to check prices on baseball from Oct-May?
    Perhaps someone wants me to keep buying his magazine ---
    Mike

    
>    As far as prices changing in the winter for baseball - It seems
>    rediculous to me unless a guy is put in HOF or retires or gets
>    injured-He didn't get any more hits or pitch a shutout etc.
>    Why should I have to check prices on baseball from Oct-May?
    
    I'm a collector of old stuff ... I don't worry in the least about new
    releases. My purchasing has little to do with what season it is.  I
    have my monthly budget and every month I decide what I want to spend
    my money on.  There probably is some correlation to "seasons" but I'm
    creating demand for baseball, football, hockey, and basketball cards
    throughtout the year.  For example, the only thing I bought from May
    through August was basketball cards from the 70s ... so maybe each
    price went up $0.000001 because of the demand pull I created this
    basketball "off-season".
    
    Greg
    

    Well if Beckett's had a bunch of Bowman's maybe they sold it to Home
    Shopping Club.  Last night they had the  45  card gold foil set from
    last year's Bowman for 140$ + S&H. Such a deal.
    
    > Why should I have to check prices on baseball from Oct-May?
    
    Because that's usually when prices seem to go down a little ;-)  Af-
    ter the season is over the  stuff  doesn't  move  as well so dealers
    will lower prices to move some of their stuff.  Let's face it, price
    guides are out there mostly for the newer stuff.
    
    John

    re 11
    Are Becketts sampling techniques that sensitive?
    It seems to me that he has a real incentive to change prices in the off
    season----so people will buy his guides.
    

Hey, let's try an experiment!  Let's pick one card and each of us submit a
Becketts survey sheet on that card with a significantly lower price than
what's there today.  Then we'll watch the book and see what happens!  :-)

db

    Do you guys honestly believe that the survey you send in really gets
    read??  Be realistic.  They probably get thousands in every month.  You
    would need a full time staff to do an analysis of these.  This is only
    done for promotional purposes, the free subscription.  What probably
    really happens is that Dr.  B. has selected knowledgable sports card
    experts throughout the country, (ie. Mr. Mint) to evaluate HOT cards for this
    particular month.  Let face it, by the time they get your sheet in,
    they have already printed the next months issue, so there is quite a
    time lag on his pricing scheme.  His editors are probably reading 
    newspapers, statistics of players, etc. and evaluating current prices
    based on these stats, and input from the so-called experts.  An example
    of this was brought to my attention by an avid Roger Clemens Collector,
    who has been tracking Roger's Fleer Rookie card, which took a NOSE-Dive
    when he started having troubles at the end of the season.  It dropped 
    about $20 to $50 off its all-time high price.  Don't believe me, check
    that card out.  Follow the pattern, as Roger started to loose games,
    and went below 500 on his win/losses for the year, the card dropped.  
    This is a good example.  Also watch Johnny Bench cards.  I bet they 
    drop based on his so-called "unrealistic" pricing of baseballs.

    I still like Dan's idea about "stuffing" the ballot box and
    seeing if we can affect the pricing of a particular card.
    Perhaps if we pick some obscure card, they will pick up on
    it if/when they scan through the surveys they get back.
    Let's see, how many of us are there and how many surveys can
    be send in.... :^)
    

Plus, I did include my disclaimer ->  :-)

Dan

    Agree with Mr. G.  However if you insist suggest that you pick 
    a football or hockey card to experiment with.  Why ?  Well,
    football and hockey arn't sports first of all, second the sample size
    doesn't have to be as large.  Pick a retired HOF'er and try to drive
    his price up--Say  John Hannah - try it with his last card or his
    second card and I think that any movement will be a reflection of your
    efforts.  Jim B. will probably get suspicious if you try his rook.
    
    Mike

    I sent a letter to Beckett's about price fixing and also whether he
    owned lots of 1992 Bowman baseball as was rumored in here.
    
    John