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Conference rusure::math

Title:Mathematics at DEC
Moderator:RUSURE::EDP
Created:Mon Feb 03 1986
Last Modified:Fri Jun 06 1997
Last Successful Update:Fri Jun 06 1997
Number of topics:2083
Total number of notes:14613

63.0. "Conditional probability quest'n" by HARE::STAN () Tue May 01 1984 02:21

From:	ROLL::USENET       "USENET Newsgroup Distributor" 30-APR-1984 22:18
To:	HARE::STAN
Subj:	USENET net.math newsgroup articles

Newsgroups: net.math
Path: decwrl!decvax!mcnc!unc!ulysses!harpo!seismo!hao!hplabs!tektronix!tekchips!stevev
Subject: conditional probability problem
Posted: Thu Apr 26 01:32:02 1984


Y and Z are independent random variables, uniform distribution on [0,1].
The random variable X is max(Y, Z).

Given that Y > 0.5, what is the expected value of X? the probability
distribution for X?

Given that X > 0.5, what is the expected value of Y? the probability
distribution for Y?

		Steve Vegdahl
		Tektronix, Inc.
T.RTitleUserPersonal
Name
DateLines
63.1TURTLE::GILBERTFri May 04 1984 17:2430
Y and Z are independent random variables, uniform distribution on [0,1].
The random variable X is max(Y, Z).

In the following, it is assumed that 0 <= a,b <= 1.

The probability that X < a, given that Y > b is:

    P( X < a | Y > b )	= a(max(a,b)-b)/(1-b)

Other results:

    P( X < a | Y < b )	= a*min(a,b)

    P( Y < b | X > a )	= (b - a*min(a,b))/(1-a^2)

    P( Y < b | X < a )	= min(a,b)/a

    P( X < a )		= a^a

The expected value of X, given that Y > b is:

    E( X | Y > b )	= ( b + sqrt(b^2-2b+2) ) / 2

Other results:

    E( X | Y < b )	= 1/( 2 min(b,sqrt(1/2)) )

    E( Y | X > a )	= sqrt( (a^2+1)/2 )

    E( Y | X < a )	= a/2
63.2AURORA::HALLYBWed May 09 1984 14:251
Great!  I hope this got back to the originator.  Any references?
63.3reopen?LATOUR::JMUNZERWed Sep 10 1986 16:1828
Is this (from .1) correct:

  >  The expected value of X, given that Y > b is:

  >      E( X | Y > b )	= ( b + sqrt(b^2-2b+2) ) / 2

?  I get

	E ( X | Y > 0 ) = 2 / 3

I tried it with this picture:

	z
	-------------------------
	|			|	It's a strip (of W's) on
	|			|	which the function
	|			|		max (y, z)
	|WWWWWWWWWWWWWWW	|	has value x.  The strip is
	|              W	|	2 x dx in area, so
	|              W	|
	|              W	|	E(x) = integral of x 2 x dx
	|              W	|	     = 2 / 3
	|              W	|
	|              W	|
	-------------------------  y
		       x	

John
63.4CLT::GILBERTeager like a childWed Sep 10 1986 17:1746
Yes, you're right.

Excusing the tacky integral signs, the expected value is:

	   1 1                    1 1
	   S S max(y,z) dz dy  /  S S dz dy
	   b 0                    b 0

	   1   y               1     
	=  S ( S max(y,z) dz + S max(y,z) dz ) dy  /  (1-b)
	   b   0               y     

	   1   y        1     
	=  S ( S y dz + S z dz ) dy  /  (1-b)
	   b   0        y     

	   1    2       2     
	=  S ( y  + (1-y )/2 ) dy  /  (1-b)
	   b                

	   1       2     
	=  S ( (1+y )/2 ) dy  /  (1-b)
	   b                

	           3   y=1
	=  (y/2 + y /6)    / (1-b)
	               y=b    

	                          3
	=  ((1/2 + 1/6) - (b/2 + b /6))  / (1-b)

	                          3
	=  ((1/2 + 1/6) - (b/2 + b /6))  / (1-b)

	               3
	   (4 - 3*b - b )
	=  --------------
	       6 (1-b)

	                   2
	   (1-b) (4 + b + b )
	=  -----------------
	        6 (1-b)

	             2
	=  (4 + b + b ) / 6