Conference nyoss1::market_investing

    Two comments:
     First on genetically altered plants: There was a company in the
    Baltimore/Washington area called Crop Genetics (at least it was listed
    in our "local stocks" section of the paper, so it must have had some
    local presence). They produced a genetically altered tomato called the
    Flavor Saver, which was supposed to preserve its fresh flavor better in
    shipping. But it was still just a tomato, and the same characteristics
    could probably have been achieved by breeding. The catch was, some
    groups raised questions about its safety for human consumption (not
    with any particalar objection or study proving it to be UNsafe, as I
    recall); next, a consortium of chefs publicly refused to serve it in
    their restaurants; supermarkets were afraid to stock it because of the
    controversy; etc. Lately, the company disappeard from the stock
    listings; haven't called to find out what happened to it. So caution is
    probably advised, even if there is nothing scientifically wrong with
    their seed.
    
    Second, about biopesticides: my sister is a scientist with a biotech
    firm; she is very concerned about ecology, but with a new twist.
    Nowadays, she extols the virtues of the newer fungicides and herbicides
    which control rot and blights on crops by acting in very specific ways
    against the targeted plant disease. SHe says they are much safer than
    most of the herbicides now being used, which act more generally and
    thus need to be stronger. (she feels that both ways are much better for
    you than eating rotten food).
    
    Paradoxically, the new, safer herbicides have a lot of trouble getting
    to market in the U.S. Unless a company will make several million
    dollars from a particular herbicide, and can wait years for approval,
    it is often not worthwhile to put bring it to market. This is
    especially true because the safest herbicides are, by their nature,
    very specific (say, works only against a kind of rot which attach
    strawberries), and so the market is limited. So the U.S. continues to
    use the less safe , general-action herbicides which have already been
    approved.
    
    All this applies to herbicides, but these issues may applie to
    pesticides as well. ALso, if Mycogen expects to market its products in
    Asia, maybe the lengthy approval cycle will not  be as much of a
    problem. I'll ask my sister what she has heard about Mycogen.
    			Good luck,
    				JIm

    
    	Jim -
    
    	Thanks. The info I have on this company is good. They already have
    $200MM in sales, mostly in seed products for large corn, soybean, and
    sunflower producers. Their forte is insect-resistant plants and
    biopesticides - especially in the "high-value" crops like cotton,
    turf and horticulture.
    
    	Their numbers are what caused my screens to pop. They have a book
    value of $6/share, profits of $1.56, and $5/share short-term assets
    and the stock has languished at $9/share for months.
    
    	Granted the first quarter numbers were off slightly from last year,
    but they are turning out new products consistently and have what a
    friend of mine says is the best research people in the AG business
    today.
    
    	And their quarterly and annual reports are the essense of honesty
    and straight talk. So it appears management is properly focused.
    
    	Be interesting to hear the feedback...
    
    		the Greyhawk

    >         Be interesting to hear the feedback...
    Little Sister is speaking at a symposium in Germany this week and next,
    but I'll drop her a line when she returns and get back to you.
    
    p.s. - can't find "greyhawk" in my dictionary; must be a pretty rare
    bird :-)
    				Jim
    

    
    	Thanks, and
    
    
    	That it is, Jim, that it is...
    
    	
    		the Greyhawk

Just to add a little bit more about Mycogen.....

I've been seriously thinking about investing in this company for the past
3 years (and followed it casually for many years before that).  My target
buy price for the past few years has been the 7-8 area.  It briefly touched
that area early in the year.  Before that it spent about a year trading
between 10-12.  A few years ago, I remember it being about 18 or so.
Not what you'd call an exciting trading history, but fundamentally it is
a very interesting company.

With today's low price of 8 1/4, it looks like we are going to hit the
7-8 price range again soon.  It looks like it will be a very nice buy for
the patient investor looking for a multi-year long-term buy.  And every
now and then someone gives the company a plug and that could mean a 50% move
to the 12 area for those inclined to do more trading.

I have to quibble with some of the numbers I saw a few notes back though...
the recent annual report shows Sales at about $120 million for 1993 and 1994,
and profits of only .11/share last year.
I think it will be a long time before we see a profit of $1.56/share because
the seed business is generally a low-margin biz (although granted the Mycogen
value-added product will command a higher than normal margin).  Also, the
company continues to plow money into R+D.  If you figure a 5% profit margin
on $120 million - which is probably generous - you come out with annual EPS
of .32/share.  (19 mill shs outstanding)

Not that I'm being negative.  The company is at the forefront of a new dynamic
industry.  It has no debt and lots of cash, and it is profitable despite
spending lots on R+D.  The fundamentals and the historically stable stock
price should give it nice downside protection (in terms of stock price) and
probably make it a good selection in the current high-altitude market.

    re: .5
    
    Can you tell us what this company does? I tried to search for it on the
    Internet and came up with nothing. Do you have a number we can call to
    request for lit from the company?
    
    Thanks,
    
    Mike

    
    Mike,
    
    Read the first several notes for what Mycogen does
    (genetically-improved seed stock and biopesticides).
    
    Phone number is 1-800-745-7475.
    
    Mycogen Corporation
    5501 Oberlin Drive
    San Diego, CA  92121
    
    
    For my numbers I just took the last four quarters (kind of a "rolling"
    year). MYCO has 21,330,000 shares outstanding (fully diluted). The
    excitment, in my mind, is that institutional holdings only constitute
    18% of the shares, shareholder base is relatively small, market cap
    (as of Friday's close) is only $192 million, and the product pipeline
    appears very strong going into 1996, and Mycogen's patent portfolio
    in insect-resistant plants and biological pesticides is just now
    becoming apparent.
    
    As technology becomes more important in agriculture, I believe MYCO
    is poised to significantly improve shareholder equity growth.
    
    But then, as Dennis Miller says, I could be wrong...
    
      		the Greyhawk

    Thanks Greyhawk!

    re .6
    
    A question actually.  Where do you search on the internet?  Is there a
    URL?
    

    re: .-1
    
    I was using YAHOO (URL is: http://www.yahoo.com/ ) search. You can also
    find recent SEC filings on "SEC EDGAR Archives". The URL for this is: 
    http://www.town.hall.org/cgi-bin/srch-edgar .
    
    Mike  

> They've never paid a dividend and don't look to be any time soon.  This may
> be fine for younger people but may not be appropriate for folks approaching
> retirement, depending on asset allocation.

	A couple of weeks ago the oldest broker around (90 something
	year old guy) said he tries to stay away from any stock that
	pays a dividend (exluding utilities) because that shows the
	company doesn't know what else to do with the cash.

    In the July issue of WORTH magazine Mycogen showed up on the "Ten
    stocks to consider" 
    
    	" Mycogen is one of the few agricultural biotechnology companies
    currently making a profit from products in the marketplace. Next year,
    the company plans to offer genetically engineered seeds that develop
    into corn plants with their own pest-fighting chemicals."

    FWIW, I answered my own question from .1:
    
    >      First on genetically altered plants: There was a company in the
    > Baltimore/Washington area called Crop Genetics 
    > . . . Lately, the company disappeared from the stock
    > listings; haven't called to find out what happened to it.
    
    It was acquired by another biotech firm (didn't catch the name; it
    wasn't Mycogen) while its stock was low. Too bad; I was going to invest
    some high-risk capital in it but wanted to see if it had really
    bottomed out. Would probably have appreciated nicely in the takeover.
    				Jim B.

    
    	Wonder what Jim Buchman's sister had to say about Mycogen?
    
    	Jim, can you comment? Thanks,
    
    		the Greyhawk

    >         Wonder what Jim Buchman's sister had to say about Mycogen?
    
    Dr. Ann is looking over some of our earlier notes now (she doesn't get
    onto the Internet that often). She did feel the regulatory obstacles
    would be less in Asia. I'll let you know when I hear back from her.
    			Jim

    
    > >         Wonder what Jim Buchman's sister had to say about Mycogen?
    Hi Greyhawk,
    
    Ann was in town recently, so I asked her about Mycogen. She knows of
    them by reputation, and was lukewarm about their chances of making big
    money in pesticides. She warns that VERY few biotech firms are making a
    profit, or can expect to within the next decade. First, your idea has
    to work; second, there has to be a big market for it. But even once you
    manage to develop your wonderful product, you have major regulatory
    hurdles to overcome.
    
    Ann says that, in round numbers, it costs about
    $10 million to bring a pesticide to market *if* the pesticide occurs
    in nature. If it is in any way artificial, even to the point of just
    changing one chemical bond in the entire protien, then the price tag
    jumps to about $100 million. One needs to prove that it will break down
    to the point that it's undetectable within 6 months; that it is not
    carcinogenic; that it does not impact adversely on developing fetuses;
    etc., etc. Ann feels that it is ridiculous that there is such a
    disparity between natural and artificial: what nature manufactures
    tends to be *more* toxic that anything artificial. Typically, the
    man-made modification is to make something natural *less* toxic and/or
    more specific (kill the bug but not the crops and people). But that's
    just how it is.
    
    Ann's company already has developed a number of herbicides and
    pesticides which are proven safe and effective in the laboratory; the
    decision to bring one to market is always a business decision. In sum,
    she feels that there are better ways to make money than investing in
    biotech. (unless you happen to be a be a fungal virologist :-)
    
    One woman's opinion, but one that I trust. Hope it helps,
    				Jim B.

    
    	Jim-
    
    	Much thanks for the info. MYCO is also doing seed products which
    	account for 85% of their business. Interesting comments from Ann.
    	
    	Will have to watch how their foreign sales (especially Asia) grow
    	of the next several quarters.
    
    	Again. Really appreciate the feedback. Thanks.
    
    		the Greyhawk
    	

	FWIW, Dan Seiver, Editor of the PAD System Report,
	still recommends (he recommended it last time he
	was on NBR, and it's up 30% since then) this stock
	on NBR this past Friday night.  He did just say
	it's still on their buy list, but that they like
	this co. a whole lot.

Symbol: MYCO (MYCOGEN CORP)
Last Trade: 12.7500, Change 0.0000 (0.00%) at Nov 17  2:00:12
Bid/Ask: 12.2500 / 12.7500 (spread 0.5000)
Low/High: 12.2500 / 12.7500 (spread 0.5000)
52 Week Low/High: 7.7500 / 14.2500 (spread 6.5000)
Volume/# of Trades: 8000 / 26 (307 shares/trade)

    
    	re:-1
    
    	MYCO now at 16.00/share, up 30% since Nov 95. Could this be a
    good time to...?
    
    		the Greyhawk

    
    	MYCO is now at 18.125 and doing quite nicely thankyou. I've
    raised my target price to $22.00 a share in 1996. Hold 'em if you
    got 'em.
    
    	Best regards.
    
    	Bye......
    
    
    			the Greyhawk