| The standard infomercial "pitch" is that UR gas goes up in Summer as
the Summer driving season kicks in. Six months from now they'll be
pitching HO (heating oil) as the Winter heating season kicks in.
Both pitches likely (I've not seen this -particular- one) stress the
fact that the cash price follows a definite, more-or-less predictable,
more-or-less obvious pattern. So, hey, buy gas in the Winter and sell
it in the Summer, right? And buy options to limit your risk, right?
Here's the problem: the entire petroleum industry, including producers,
distributors and consumers, KNOW the fundamentals. And those prices are
reflected in the price of the FUTURES contracts -- upon which OPTION
prices are based. It does you no good to follow the CASH price of gas,
since the FUTURES are where your price action takes place. And the
futures are priced according to anticipated supply/demand and already
take in to account my August driving trip to Illinois.
That said, if you anticipate another oil boycott and gas lines, then
of course you'll want to buy call options. But you can do that through
discount brokers with a $2,500 min. account and pay ~$37 commission --
a MUCH better deal than the slick infomercial company will offer.
John
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