Conference nyoss1::market_investing

    If this gets out to the public, on national TV for a couple of days, I
    believe it will spur gold buying. BUT if buy now or currently own gold,
    then get ready to bail once the spur has gone a few days. The
    government will do or say something to stabilize the situation which
    will then drop the price. I've seen this happen many times: Gold is
    funny like that. Then when it go down to a level where it was at or
    within 10%, you might consider getting back in.
    
    p.s. I don't dispute your memo, but I, personally, haven't heard about
    this scam. nevertheless, I have notice the price of Gold go up in the
    past week to 10 days.

    i'm also convinced that Gold may be a good investment right now.  i'm
    very concerned about the 'value' of our currancy.  Not just issues like
    this around counterfeiting, but also because of our mounting budget
    deficit.  It seems to me the whole world has placed a great amount of
    faith in the US$ but it isn't backup by alot or even merited.
    
    Yes, i've heard the arguments around how large our GDP is and the fact
    that our deficit only amounts to about 10% of that GDP.  However the
    national debt interest burden is approaching 25% of the US Government 
    Budget.
    
    i'd like to hear others thoughts around this.  i'm presently planning
    on sinking a sizable sum of money into Canadian Maple Leafs.  Some have
    told me to not do that but to actually buy Gold Stocks.  My concern
    with Glod Stocks is that they are still based on the US$.
    
    Am i just an overly pessimistic BEAR or are my concerns justified in
    the minds of others in here.
    
    					Doug

>    i'd like to hear others thoughts around this.  i'm presently planning
>    on sinking a sizable sum of money into Canadian Maple Leafs.  Some have
>    told me to not do that but to actually buy Gold Stocks.  My concern
>    with Glod Stocks is that they are still based on the US$.
    
    The choice you make depends on what kind of future you envision.
    Basically you buy and sell paper to make paper; you buy and sell coins 
    to participate in an alternate economy, when paper has no value.
    
    If you envision something akin to the early/mid 1970s when Nixon closed
    the "gold window" and the US$ took a spill, then gold stocks would do
    well in constant terms. Or a Second Great Depression -- in the 1930s gold
    stocks did well even though the gold price was fixed, because mining
    costs fell.
    
    It would take a future worse than the current situation in Russia for
    owning physical gold to be, umm, profitable. I.e., a substantial breakdown
    of society where trust in the currency (hence the fate of the nation)
    becomes questionable. At that point, s/he who has the gold makes the rules.
    Which coins you own (Leafs, Eagles, junk silver) are not as important 
    as the amount of metal therein.
    
      John

    i hear ya John...you could also buy 'coins' to transfer into other
    'paper' that maybe worth more than the 'paper' you have to deal in
    (ie; that which is issued by your Gov't).
    
    Considering Russia...if you had been fortunate enough to sink your
    Rubles into Gold during the communist rule, that Gold would buy you
    relationally more $$$, or Yen or Duetchmarks then the Ruble would now...
    in fact many in Russia who are living relatively well, have very large
    Gold stocks.
    
    So i look at it as a hedge to protect my principle from extreme currency 
    fluxuation....
    
    Now you may ask, well do you think our currency is really at risk??? 
    This is my question.  Does this make sense given the present
    environment???  i know i'm asking somewhat of a hypothetical question,
    but i'm interested in your views....
    
    So thanks for the input,
    
    				Doug  

    If you had gold in Russia during the Soviet years, you were
    a criminal (just as you would have been if you owned bullion
    in the US after '34 (I think) and before gold became legal
    again (in the 70s?)).
    
    While it may be necessary to live via the black market in
    some places and times, the probability of massive breakdown
    in the US requiring under-the-counter transactions in gold
    is small.  See 203.13 and vicinity for a discussion of
    "survival" gold and silver.  The best argument I've read
    is for owning the old silver dimes and quarters: when massive
    inflation causes government price-freezes, which cause shortages,
    you will be able to use the silver to get the goods you need.
    The example was cabbage: when the offical price is $10 a head,
    you pay with $9.90 in inflated paper and token coins and one
    silver dime.  This causes a cabbage to appear from under the
    counter, while $10 in paper would not.
    
    If you predict massive inflation, you should probably also
    predict confiscation of gold.  Historically, owning gold mining
    stocks has been a better bet in the US; owning physical gold
    has been a better bet in Eastern Europe.
    
    		-John Bishop

    
    What effect would a destablized South Africa have on gold and gold
    mining stocks?  I would consider that more likely than problems with
    Russia.
    
    Bob

    Well, a good chance that the stocks would be worthless due
    to confiscation.  Odds are there'd be episodes of frantic
    gold sales (dropping the price) as well as no sales due to
    chaos (raising the price).  Eventually whatever government
    winds up holding the mines will get back to selling gold in
    a regular way.  It will probably be more eager for immediate
    income than the current one.
    
    Same goes for the diamond market, coupled with a good chance
    that the DeBeers cartel/price fixing organization would
    collapse.
    
    			-John Bishop

    Does anyone have information on how much gold the Japanese hold...i
    once heard that it was close to 70% of the world's mined bullion.
    That and the fact that the Japanese have no national debt leads me to
    believe that the Yen may become the new world currancy standard.
    
    Yes their economy is undergoing a significant slowdown, but their
    economy is still one of the richest in the world.  Since the early 50's
    the yen as steadily progressed from about 360 yen to the dollar to just
    over 100 yen to the dollar.  
    
    Any thoughts???
    
    			Doug
                            

    The Japanese hold nowhere near 70% of the world's mined bullion.
    I recall reading that gold bullion is "used" in one of three, roughly
    equal, allotments: (a) Central bank holdings, (b) jewelry, (c) private
    hoarding for investment or speculation. Of course small amounts are
    used for industrial purposes but basically everything is (a),(b),(c).
    
    It IS true that there is a secular shift of gold holdings from the West
    to the East, but Japan isn't that dominant of a player there, either.
    There is great gold demand in China.
    
    I think the gold issue is quite separate from the currency issue.
    If you like the Yen (I don't), you can buy futures, options or even
    open a Yen savings account. I don't think the gold issue will come
    into play because I don't see any new gold-backed currency, from Japan
    or anywhere else.
    
    It is possible that one day the Yen will replace the US$ as the world's
    reserve currency. But I do not see that happening anytime soon, say
    before the end of the century. This forecast subject to revision based
    on Clinton appointments to the Federal Reserve and Congressional acts
    that might politicize the FED. Trying to print more money is the
    fastest way to run out of the stuff.
    
      John

    Hi,
    
    i'm presently looking around to buy Mapleleafs...unfortunately, most of
    the Gold coin brokers i've spoken to are charging $20 or more above
    spot even for large purchases.  i'm looking to buy as many as 20 coins
    and wonder if anyone in here knew of the best source (IE: Cheapest and
    most secure) to procure gold from???  i'd consider 3% or so above spot
    reasonable for a large purchase...any thoughts???
    
    Doug
    
    

	Re. .10

	Doug,

	If you are in GMA area, try Alpha Omega Jewellers in the Galleria
	Mall in Cambridge (on JFK Blvd). 3% above spot rate is about $12 
	per oz. I think A-O charges around 15-20. I haven't bought from
	them in quantity (I bought 2 :-), so do not know about quantity
	discount. 

	

    Thanks, i'll give them a try...i've seen as high as 6% for 20 coins, i
    told they guy i wasn't that desperate to buy...
    
    Anyone know if the banks will handle this as a foreign currancy
    exchange in Canadian Mapleleafs???
    
    Doug
    

    Can't you either
    	a. Drive to the boarder in Que. and buy them
    	b. Buy at a Canadian bank in the US?

    That's an idea...Canadian banks????   Tried US banks but they only deal
    in paper, no coin.
    
    i just got off the phone with a dealer that was somewhat more open then
    most i've talked to.  He said the wholesalers really nail the retailers
    to the point of 4% or so over spot.  He said you won't find any
    retailers that will deal below 5%.  He was nice enough to suggest for
    the quantity i'm looking for that i talk to Lincoln Goldsmiths
    (617/863-1500) rather than buy from him.  i called them and they would
    only do 5% above spot which is about $20 per coin.
    
    He also said that the wholesalers buy coin back at %2 above spot but that
    the retailers never really pass that on, so they get ya coming and
    going.
    
    Ingot is not as liquid but it can be had at 3% above spot...that's
    because the dealers get it for about 2% below.  Unfortunately when you
    go to sell they discount ingot below spot and again they get ya coming
    and going.
    
    Doug

	Re. last couple

	Why do you need to buy Mapleleafs from a Canadian source only? 
	I think any dealer in gold would keep them. I know that Alpha Omega
	keeps the Chinese Panda and the Krueggerands (sp?) as well  as a 
	few others, including possible the Mapleleafs. 

    The WSJ has a standing advertisement for some place in NH
    which claims to be cheap.  You can also call MTB (Manfra
    To<something> Brooks) at 1-(800)-535-7481 for a quote--I've
    heard good things about them.  The number is several years
    old but may still be good.
    
    		-John Bishop

    Hi,
    
    Thanks for the feedback...i called MTB and they were 5% over spot as
    well...quite the controlled market if you ask me.
    
    Anyway, i've decided just to go and work with someone close to home.
    i talked last night to Scott Taber at Taber Nuemismatics on RT 20 in
    Shrewsbury.  He seems like a down to earth, honest dealer.  He said he'd
    work with me at 5% over spot and that he'd work with nothing down. 
    Most want some sort of down payment.  That bothers me a bit.  My
    attitude is cash on the barrel head, you got the gold, THEN i give you
    the cash.  We closed at $407 for a 20 piece order this morning. 
    
    He gave me an interesting book last night, it's called 'Bankruptcy 1995'
    by some guy named Figgi.  He was Co-Chair of Reagan's Grace Commission
    on controling cost of government, but resigned when he concluded that the 
    issues were entirely political and really couldn't be fixed without firm
    leadership.
    
    His point is that the Government will be bankrupt by 1995...what does
    this mean???  That the interest payment on the national debt will be
    more than the revenue it takes in.  If that isn't setting the stage for
    drastic currency devaluation and widespread hyper-inflation, i don't
    know what is.
    
    But on to another point...Scott was talking to me last night about $20US
    Liberty coins...he pointed out that they are 24Ct but that they are
    more of a speculative issue than Mapleleafs...BUT he also pointed out
    that when gold moves, these move 50% more...his point was that in 1976
    when gold was close to $800 these were trading at almost $1,600, right
    now MS64 (Uncirculated/unblemished) gold pieces are trading at $750.
    
    i'm considering going in on a couple for some speculative diversity.
    Anyone have any comments they want to make??? 
    
    Thanks again,
    
    			Doug
    

    Am I right in assuming that all these MASS coin dealers are not
    charging the usual 5% State Rake?
    
    If you've got _Bankruptcy 1995_ take a peek on page 43 where the author
    predicts the Fiscal 1993 Federal Budget deficit to be $600 Billion.
    Looks like the real numbers will come in around $250 Billion. Perhaps
    the sky isn't falling quite as fast as originally thought.
    
    Numismatic coins aren't as liquid as bullion coins, and carry the risk
    that what you buy (MS-64) won't hold up when you want to sell -- the
    buyer deciding that it's really MS-63, thus not worth what you thought.
    Even if the coin is slabbed in a container that proudly proclaims its
    grade as MS-64, you'll likely hear an excuse of the form "The grading
    standards have toughened since that was graded, and it is now only MS-63".
    And don't believe a dealer promise that HE will honor the grading,
    since he's likely to be out of business when you will have to sell.
    
    One of the advantages to numismatic coins is that they are relatively
    immune to arbitrary government confiscation, such as that ordered by
    FDRoosevelt one month after inaguration and in direct contradiction to
    his campaign promises not to do so. They'll grab your bullion but not
    your rare coins. But you can avoid that by buying junk silver or junk
    rare coins (MS-60). IMHO what's important is the quantity of metal, not
    the purity or the numismatic value. That's -especially- true if you're
    a devotee of Chicken Little.
    
    The last numismatic price spike was a speculative bubble brought about
    by the belief that Wall Street was gonna form a bunch of Limited
    Partnerships or Unit Trusts that would buy up all the good rare coins.
    That didn't happen and probably never will, at least not to the extent
    predicted by the high coin prices at the time. Just go for the gold.
    
      John

    Good points John about Neumismatic coins, grading and such...i'll use 
    due caution, but will maybe pick up one or two for speculative aspects.
    If you buy over $1,000 worth of coin there is no MASS State Sales Tax so 
    that's not an issue.
    
    I'll look at Page 43 and see what's there...i think last night when i
    was looking at that it was saying that the $600B is the combined 
    operational deficit PLUS the draw down on the trust funds.  Are you 
    saying that the US Government is NOT drawing down on the SS Fund and 
    Government Pension Funds???
    
    As to whether the sky will fall or not is open to speculation.  i
    happen to be one who beleives that there will be a future but how
    bright it is depends on that sky.  
    
    i agree with your concerns around bullion...i'm not jumping into ingot 
    at all...but do you think the confiscation issues would also be true 
    with Canadian Mapleleafs??? 
    
    Doug
    

    re confiscation:
    
    We don't know what a future government might decide--but past
    governments around the world have treated different categories
    of precious metals in a fairly consistent manner:
    
    Bulk bullion is confiscated first;
    Ordinary precious metal coins next;
    numismatic coins and jewelry next;
    wedding rings next;
    teeth last (and you're usually dead then, if you're lucky).
    
    And overall gold goes before silver.
    
    Given the US experience in the past, US gold coins with some minor
    numismatic value will be safer than bullion coins like the Maple Leaf
    or Krugerrand.  If you want to be safer from government confiscation,
    you can buy with cash, store them at home and not tell your insurance
    company--but then you'll have no protection from private confiscation
    (theft).
    
    The bottom line is the public doesn't care about "the rich", but they
    do care about the small collector--so if you have 100 Maple Leafs in 
    a bag you're at risk, but if you have the same weight of gold in
    a set of US coins of various denominations stored carefully in a book,
    you're less at risk.  But as you know, "past performance is no
    guarantee..."!
    
    		-John Bishop

    Good points John....so are you saying that US Gold Eagle Pieces would be
    safer than having Maple Leafs if the crash does come???  Would these be
    treated differently because they are from the US Mint???
    
    Another question, i know why Maple Leafs trade higher than Kugerands...
    because Maple Leafs are 24Ct and Kugerands are actually less than 24Ct...
    but why do Pandas and US Eagles trade above Maple Leafs???  
    
    My understanding is that US Eagles aren't quite 24Ct but that they weigh 
    more than an OZ and actual do contain 24Ct's worth of gold.  Is it
    because they are US Coins...if that's the case then why do Communist
    Chinese Pandas trade so high???
    
    Thanks, i do appreciate the insights,
    					 	Doug 
                                                    

>    Good points John....so are you saying that US Gold Eagle Pieces would be
>    safer than having Maple Leafs if the crash does come???  Would these be
>    treated differently because they are from the US Mint???
    
    No, "bullion" Eagles would be no different from Maple Leafs (Leaves?).
    
>    Another question, i know why Maple Leafs trade higher than Kugerands...
>    because Maple Leafs are 24Ct and Kugerands are actually less than 24Ct...
>    but why do Pandas and US Eagles trade above Maple Leafs???  
    
    First off, the American Eagles have the same composition as Krugerrands.
    But ALL the major coins offer 1 oz. of gold, no more, no less. American
    Eagles thus weigh more than Leafs (Leaves?) because of the extra alloys
    that help keep the coin "firm". Whatever price discrepancy is found is
    due primarily to fashion, not to any intrinsic differences. Krugerrands 
    are Politically Incorrect to own these days so the demand is low. Pandas
    are "cute" so the demand is higher. I've never seen any price difference
    between the Maple Leaf and Eagle. In any event, the ounce of pure gold
    contained in each coin is the primary source of value. In a disaster
    scenario who knows where the vagaries of fashion will wander?
    
      John (H.)

    "Real" coins, meant to be used in commerce, will be made of an alloy.
    Pure gold is too soft--a Maple Leaf in circulation would wear away
    very quickly.  Wedding rigns are alloy for the same reason.
    
    The US alloy was (I belive) 90 parts gold, 9 parts silver, and 1 part
    copper.
    
    My suggestion was for 5, 10 and 20 dollar gold pieces from the good 
    old days of real gold and silver coins, not the recent bullion Eagles.
    On the other hand, I can imagine the US government favoring owners
    of Eagles over owners of Krugerrands, etc.
    
    Note: there was an international agreement called the "Latin Monetary
    Union" which standardized a gold coin.  It had the same composition 
    (I think), size and weight everywhere, but had different names and 
    decorations.  The US version was the five-dollar gold coin, the British
    one the soverign, the French one the 20 franc coin (exact number of 
    francs may be wrong).  The standard coin was a bit shy of a quarter
    ounce of gold, but I think was a quarter ounce (troy) of alloy.
    
    Others know far more about this than I do--perhaps some real collectors
    can explain more?
    
    		-John Bishop

    Thanks guys...
    
    i've looked into $20 St. Gaudens Investment coins, PCGS Slabbed and
    rated MS-64.  My concern is that you can go on the The Coin Dealer
    'grey sheet' for an ask/bid position, but there seems to be a lot of
    variablity out in the market.  i've seen PCGS coins for anywhere from
    $645 - $765, which leads me to believe that the 'investment' grade coin
    market is MUCH more speculative than the standard gold market.  And at
    this point as soft as the metal itself.
    
    i've pretty much decided to go with current mint coins pegged to the
    spot on gold.  With your input i'll focus on US mint coins for
    liquidity purposes in a 'depressed' market.
    
    As to what type of crash i'm expecting, it's spelled out pretty well in
    Howard Figgie's book 'Bankruptcy 1995'...he points out that the trends
    of the deficit over the last six years are following his data based
    predictions and if the course isn't changed damatically in the next 2 
    years then by 1995 the interest on the nation's debt will have outstipped 
    the revenues that we collect in individual and corporate taxes and fees.
    
    At this point we will have to borrow to pay the interest and if you
    appreciate the beauty of compounding interest you'll realize that what
    is so very nice for an investor can be so very devestating for a
    debtor.
    
    So what could happen???  Many, many things...but you should begin to
    to consider the government using Hyperinflation to wittle down the debt
    at the expense of everyone's savings....
    
    Not saying it will happen, but then again that's what a free economy is 
    all about, we can, as individuals 'try' to protect ourselves in whatever 
    fashion we see fit....
    
    Just take one word of warning though...be careful of US and Municipal 
    Bond exposure over the next two years...you may not be able to take 
    that to the bank!!!
    
    Thanks again for the insight,
    
    					Doug
    
    
    

Why are Krugerrand's cheaper than other 1 troy oz. coins? Is it that they are
22 carat and the others are 24 carat?



From: clarinews@clarinet.com (AP)
Newsgroups: clari.biz.finance
Subject: Monday's Selected Coin Prices
Keywords: Dollar/gold
Copyright: 1994 by The Associated Press, R
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 94 10:10:16 PST

        NEW YORK (AP) -- Selected coin prices Monday:
                           Gold Coins
  American Eagle, 1 troy oz.        $405.50 off   $ 1.50
  American Eagle, .50 oz.           $213.00 off   $ 1.00
  American Eagle, .25 oz.           $114.00 off   $ 0.50
  American Eagle, .10 oz.           $53.00               
  Aus. 100 crown, .9802 troy oz.    $391.50 off   $ 1.50
  Maple Leaf, 1 troy oz.            $405.50 off   $ 1.50
  Mex. 50 Peso, 1.2 troy oz.        $491.00 off   $ 2.00
        Source: Thomas Cook Currency Services
  China Panda 1992, 1 troy oz.      $406.00  up  $ 2.00
  Krugerrand, 1 troy oz.            $390.00  up  $ 2.00
  U.S. Silver Coins $1000 face
 value pre 1965 circulation.        $3825.00  up $25.00
        Source: M.T.B. Bank
                 Rare U.S. Coins (Mint State 65)
                                     Bid        Asked
  Morgan Silver Dollar              $91.00    $98.00   
  Peace Silver Dollar               $115.00   $143.00  
  Walking Liberty Half Dollar       $79.00    $89.00   
  $20 Liberty Gold Type III         $3210.00  $3600.00 
  $20 St Gaudens, motto             $1025.00  $1115.00 
        Source: Certified Coin Exchange

    No, in fact the American gold coins have the same alloy composition as
    the Krugerrands.
    
    Importation of Krugerrands has been illegal for the past 10 years or so,
    though that law may have been rescinded lately. Note that -sales- have
    remained legal over this period.
    
    I think it's mostly Political Correctness, together with the fear that
    someday Congress would outlaw Krugerrands entirely. Assuming peaceful
    transition of power in S.A. we should see the differential close.
    That's still a big asumption, IMHO.
    
      John

	Re. 26

	Thanx John.

	Given that a transition in SA is mostly done (whether peaceful or
	not) and that trade sanctions are being lifted, this might be an
	opportunity to pick up gold at a "cheaper" price. 

    i've stuck with mainly Maple Leafs because they are 24KT...the US
    Eagles actually weigh more than an ounce, but have 1 ounce worth of gold
    in them with alloying for hardness.  It isn't really a big issue.
    
    How do you get the clarnet.newsgroup listing for gold prices...i found
    that pretty interesting???  Especially since i've recently also been
    picking up St. Guadens $20 pieces and didn't realize the price had
    jumped so dramatically (i bought at $750/coin).
    
    What are others opinions of St. Guadens/Liberty coins???
    
    Doug

    I've noticed several discussion points about the variable issues to
    consider when investing in coins. Ct., MS-60 -- MS-64, etc.  Would
    someone please recommend a good primer book for investing in these
    assets. Or better yet, post some info here.

This week, the WSJ had an article (yesturday? day before?) asserting that
some investors think gold may dip another $10-20 / ounce before long.

believe it if you need it.

    re: .29
    
    Investing in "coins" means different things to different people.
    
    Canadian Maple Leafs, US Eagles, etc. are "bullion" coins.  Though
    legal tender their value is based on bullion prices.  Typically they
    are bought at something like (spot gold + $15)/oz, and can be sold at
    (spot gold)/oz.  $15/oz is essentially the "spread" between "bid" and
    "ask" (I'm guessing at the $15/oz value).  
    
    Collectible coins are another matter.  "MS-nn" represents a measure of
    the condition of a coin.  MS-60, I believe, is the lowest grade for a
    coin which wasn't actually used for currency ("uncirculated").  MS-65
    is a near perfect specific.  Grades above MS-65 exist, to MS-70 I
    believe, but these are very uncommon.  Rarity and thus price increase
    dramatically for higher grades, especially among scarcer coins.
    Coin grading is very subjective, and the difference between MS-64 and
    MS-65 (for example) can be major dollars.  There are a few
    will-respected organizations like "PCSG" who provide impartial coin
    grading.  On receipt of a coin the encase it in a plastic container
    ("slab") and fix a grade to the coin.  Even they are not perfect,
    however.  There are many cases were a coin comes back from PCSG with
    a grade that the owner thinks is lower; the owner the breaks the coin
    out of the seal, resubmits it for grading, and gets back a higher grade
    the second time.
    
    Collectible gold coins will move up and down with gold, but can and do
    move dramatically based on the collectors market as well (and as people
    who bought MS-65+ silver dollars a few years back can attest, having
    lost a lot of $).
    
    Worse, collectible coins are not particularly liquid.  A coin that
    a dealer sells for $1000 might only fetch $600 if sold to the same
    dealer...

South Africa is no longer a pariah, so why are Krugerrands still worth less
than Eagles and Maple Leafs?