Conference nyoss1::market_investing

    for whatever it's worth, I saw a blurb on CNBC that how the market 
    performs the week after labor day is a strong indication of how the
    market performs the rest of the year.
    
    

The Wall Street Journal just had a story on page C1 yesterday with a headline
similar to "Now is a great time to own stocks"!  This is the first "great
time" article I have seen.  Usually there is story after story on how nervous
investors have become.

John Piekos

 Peter Lynch (of Fidelity Magellan fame)  believes and I quote 
   "Stop listening to professionals!" To wit you say but HE is a professional.
 
 True. His point is that you can drive yourself crazy trying to time the market,
 figure how it will react to this or that economic data or the fact that the 
 market always behaves like this around this time of year.

 Bottom line is watch the fundamentals of the companie(s) you invest.
 That's what really matters. 

 Even if there is a fall in the fall it just means it will be a great time to
 buy more of those stocks that have great fundamentals. The stock market can't
 change that.

 I've done quite well with my investments following this advice.

 Please excuse my proselytizing. Half the fun of investing is talking about
 what the "market" will do next.

 Now. Where did I put my crystal ball.

 Pat

Ken Heebner of Captial Development feels the same way.  He's always in the
market, never times, and concentrates on fundamentals.  Ken feels that timing
doesn't do any better than not timing because timing puts you out of the market
during run ups as often as it takes you out during corrections.  He must now
something....he's quite the millionaire, and manages billions of dollars!

/mtb

Heres a plug for market timing...

1. Watching technical indicators, (a lot of them) will tell you what
the world markets are doing NOW. This is a VERY good indication of what
will happen in the near term if read correctly.

2. There are good correlations between the behavior of various markets,
such as gold vs the 30 yr long bond,  utilities vs bonds,  various market
sectors with underlying commodities.  Watching intermarket linkages can
tell you a lot about what will happen on all scales, short and long.

3. It is easy to be a successful value investor at the bottom of a major 
market cycle. If you are really a competent value investor then
IT SHOULD BE VERY HARD TO INVEST near the top. This is to say, that you
should not be able to easily find investments that are undervalued to
the market. This is really a form of market timing if you look
at it the right way. 

If you trick yourself into buying at a market top because you refuse to
feel the pulse of the current market, you will feel pain. The amount of
pain you will feel depends upon where you are in the market cycle.
We have not had a long term bear market for many years now. But I dont
think you will be very happy dollar cost averaging into a two year bear.

4. So... where are we?  I believe that were near a long term market top
but the right interest rate environment could cause a flat market for
some time. Risk / reward does not look great at the moment.
If you want to play... pick the right stocks.

Regards,

   Randy Skelding

    Readers might be intersted to hear that John Templeton, Mr. "Remain
    fully invested at all times", has sold his entire personal stake in the
    Templeton Emerging Markets Fund.  He is currently holding cash, saying
    there is no hurry to reinvest.
    
    [1] Templeton's record the last 40 years is the envy of many investors.
    [2] He's in no hurry to invest right now, conspicuously out of character.
    [3] What can we conclude?
    
      John

Gee, the interview with John Templeton that _I_ read quoted him as stating the 
reason that he cashed out of the fund bearing his own name is because it was 
selling at a premium of over 20%.  He went on to add that he intended to 
reinvest that money in another emerging markets fund, but he was in no hurry
to do so. 

Therefore, I conclude that Templeton is:
[1] following the maxim of selling your overpriced holdings
[2] sees no bargains in emerging market funds (so maybe he is DCAing?)

	Re. .6, .7

	I read the same as .7, i.e., Templeton saw two very similar funds
	run by the same manager, but one having a 20% premium that he could
	not justify. The article said that he intends to invest the money
	taken out of the first and into the second (without the premium)
	over some period of time. 

    And isn't he over 80?  I can imagine that he might be doing 
    pre-death arrangements (whether setting up Cayman Island 
    trusts or buying fast cars!).
    
    		-John Bishop