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Conference nyoss1::market_investing

Title:Market Investing
Moderator:2155::michaud
Created:Thu Jan 23 1992
Last Modified:Thu Jun 05 1997
Last Successful Update:Fri Jun 06 1997
Number of topics:1060
Total number of notes:10477

467.0. "Interest rate CRYSTAL BALL??" by SPESHR::ROCKWELL () Sat May 01 1993 04:08

Looking to get a little free advice..
Anyone care to speculate where interest rates (home mortgage specifically)
will go over the next two quarters?? I have a 15Y fixed @8.99 and am 
considering re-finance to get some home improvement money...

I have 102K left on 110K 15Y fixed. My analysis last week had me saving
about 20K over the long haul, but of course taking adding a couple years
to the date where we burn the papers, in order to take some equity out.
since then rates have gone up .125.

What are the best predictors saying about effects of current and proposed
policy on rates? Will it get down to 6%?
T.RTitleUserPersonal
Name
DateLines
467.1My guessKYOA::BOYLEDirty Jobs Done Dirt CheapSat May 01 1993 21:2110
    A number of sources, mostly TV and radio, are claiming that the climb
    of the futures markets is indicative of increased interest rates.  My
    guess is that interest rates will reflect any significant downturn in
    the economy.  I expect that when (if) healthcare reforms are announced,
    we should expect a big reaction in both the stock (downward) and bond
    (upwards) markets.
    
    Of course,  the correct answer is how the H*** do I know 8^)...
    
    Jack 
467.2The economy is a lot weaker than DC cheerleaders implyVMSDEV::HALLYBFish have no concept of fireMon May 03 1993 11:415
    Rates will top out in mid-June and head back down, bottoming on Aug. 2
    
    If I were refinancing I'd lock in the last possible day in July.
    
      John
467.3Aug 2?SOLVIT::LYONSMon May 03 1993 16:213
    Just curious...  What is the significance of Aug 2?
    
    Mike
467.4I second the question!HYEND::T_HOLLANDJohnny LongtorsoMon May 03 1993 19:248
    Here HEre - I second the question!  I may be heading into a first
    mortgage in the near future and have the same question as far as
    where rates are going.  A crystal ball would sure come in handy 
    for this task!
    
    
    Cheers,
             Tim
467.5That's "hear, hear" not "here, here"VMSDEV::HALLYBFish have no concept of fireTue May 04 1993 12:2312
    This (.2) is the call made by a timer who predicted precious metals would
    end their bear market in early March (they did) but the rally would be
    interrupted for a while on May 3rd (the jury is still out).
    
    Many metals gurus have called for a new rally in metals on a regular
    basis for the past 12 years.  This March rally, however, was the FIRST
    such call made by this timer.
    
    If this sounds like too much smoke-n-mirrors, remember you wanted a
    crystal ball.
    
      John
467.6Wolunchuk? Prechter? Jenkins?MCIS2::BONVALLATTue May 04 1993 21:305
John,

I cannot help but ask:  Who is the timer you are speaking of?

Jeff
467.7ASDG::MISTRYWed May 05 1993 00:286
    
    
    Aren't the ideas of long run interest rates staying low (.2) and of
    gold going up (.5)  somewhat contradictory? 
    
    Kaizad
467.8TimerKOALA::BOUCHARDThe enemy is wiseWed May 05 1993 11:463
    methinks that the "timer" is question is the honorable Mr. Hallyburton
    himself.
    
467.9Bottom?SPESHR::ROCKWELLWed May 05 1993 20:516
How many guru's will pick a number for "BOTTOM", lets say its delimited
by SUMMER (jun,july,august)?

for a 15Y fixed the diff between 7.0 and 7.5 looks like about $5.6 K

How probable is 6.5  this summer...