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Conference nyoss1::market_investing

Title:Market Investing
Moderator:2155::michaud
Created:Thu Jan 23 1992
Last Modified:Thu Jun 05 1997
Last Successful Update:Fri Jun 06 1997
Number of topics:1060
Total number of notes:10477

383.0. "Martin Zweig's Market Model" by SITBUL::MQUINLAN (Mark Quinlan CAG/BGS MKO1-1/K34) Fri Feb 12 1993 12:29

    I've been reading Martin Zweig's Winning on Wall Street book and
    think it makes a lot of sense. I highly recommend it.
    
    I was wondering if anyone in this conference keeps track of any of
    the technical indicators in his book. I thought we could use this
    topic to keep his Model up to date.
    
    I have started to keep track of NYSE Up vs Down Volume, but it
    hasn't come close to the 9:1 ratio which is one of his flags.
    
    I have also tracked the 10 day average of NYSE advance vs declines,
    and it has not reach the 2:1 ratio which is an indicator. It did
    reach 1.39:1 a few days ago though.
    
    I saw the Fed's report of Consumer Installment Debt in the WSJ
    a week or so ago although it was the seasonally adjusted number
    and it didn't have previous year's figure for comparison. I have
    been placed on the Fed's monthly mailing list to get this data.
    I susspect that due to the recent large increases in consumer
    debt that Marty's indicator level of 9% may be triggered soon.
    
    I need someone to provide some of the historical data which Marty's
    model requires or I will have to do research myself to dig out the
    numbers. I need to historical data for 1. reserve requirments,
    2. discount rate and quite a few other indicators. 
    
    I was wondering if his newsletter "The Zweig Forecast" provides this
    historical data and tracks the Model described in his book. If yes,
    I would like to borrow someone's newsletter for details.
    
    Mark
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383.1Try SIE!MCIS2::BONVALLATFri Feb 12 1993 15:1914
Yes, I don't subscribe currently but I am familiar with the newsletter
and it does track most of the indicators mentioned in his book (and more).

I believe you could likely get a free sample from Zweig.  I don't know
the phone number, but I bet if you call 800-information and ask for 
Zweig Investments that you'll be able to get the number that way.

Something else I highly recommend is to check out Select Information Exchange
(SIE).  There are advertisements for it in Investors Business Daily and
other investment publications currently (Barrons too I think?).  For a
mere $11.95, you get samples of 20 different investment letters of your
choosing - most significant investment letters (including Zweig) are among
those samples you can choose from.

383.25-year model readily constructedVMSDEV::HALLYBFish have no concept of fire.Fri Feb 12 1993 16:0111
    A recent issue of Investor's Business Daily had the past few years'
    worth of discount rate changes in the box that charted the S&P over
    the same time frame.  Looks to me like a regular feature, but I can't
    say fer sure since I rarely read IBD.
    
    Reserve requirements almost never change.  There was a minor change
    about a year back but it wasn't the fundamental bank deposit require-
    ment that Zweig probably meant.  As a first cut you can probably ignore
    this if you're only looking back to Jan88 or later.
    
      John
383.3Experience with Zweig ForecastKYOA::LAZARUSDavid Lazarus @KYO,323-4353Tue Feb 16 1993 16:4715
    Marty Zweig has earned his reputation as one of the great stock market 
    experts. His two golden rules: Don't fight the fed and don't fight
    market momentum have enabled him to be right about almost every major
    market turn in the last 30 years.
    
    But as one who received his newsletter,I must add that it is not really
    for the individual investor. He is so widely followed that unless 
    you are very well connected,you cannot act on them in a timely manner.
    
    Marty is a great timer,who trades frequently-unless you trade in large
    quantity -the commissions will eat up your profits. The best part of
    his newsletter is his hotline service. 
    
    Send away for the free issue,get a short trial subscription. Make up
    your own mind.
383.4NOVA::FINNERTYSell high, buy lowFri Feb 26 1993 18:0722
    
    Mark,
    
       Consumer installment debt figures are reported in Barron's each
    week.  They are nowhere near the 9% figure, and are in fact slightly
    negative on a year-to-year basis (people art attempting to pay off
    their installment debt).
    
       I do keep track of his model, or rather a modified version of it. 
    You may note that in his book he talks about various bearish
    indicators, but does not indicate how to incorporate these into his
    model...  and if you look at the results closely, you can probably
    convince yourself that this is an important improvement to make.
    
       Note also that his advisory service recommendations bear little
    resemblance to the advice you'd get by following the model in his
    book... that's not to say it is a bad model (at all), but his model is
    vague about holding period returns.
    
    /Jim