| Well, I don't have a strong opinion but I have one....
My brother follows this company closely. He feels that although
investors are currently consumed with the serious competitive threat
coming from Microsoft (hence the sell-off), that Borland has some
significant long-term strengths in the database area that aren't going
to go away - plus new products due out next year. [I'm not being
too specific because he is the one with the details]
My own opinion as to when to buy is to wait for the stock to base
in the 10-18 area (most likely around 18). Even if it doesn't go
that low, its generally premature to buy a stock when it has just made
a new yearly low.
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Borland's big problem, as pointed out in -.2, is Microsoft. Their
second problem is that they are very late with Paradox 4.0 for Windows.
I saw the product demonstrated last November, they keep promising it
and they keep delaying...
Now Microsoft comes out with Access (a Windows database) and buys out
Fox Software (the former performance champ on the pc).
Microsoft also has an SQL link to talk with db servers such as DEC's
Rdb... where does that leave Borland?
in a very tight spot, especially considering that Paradox/Windows still
hasn't shipped. btw, Paradox/Windows is a *great* product, so there's
still hope, and their DOS product still has a lot of life, but faced
with the Microsoft machine and a powerful client/server message from
Microsoft and an equally potent threat from Microsoft/Fox, things look
grim indeed.
btw, Quattro/Pro hasn't been all that well received either.
When Borland finally gets around to shipping Paradox/Windows, this may
be an opportunity for a turnaround; however, my impression is that the
new product is too complex for their existing customer base, which
consists largely of non-programmers. This means that they'll be going
head to head against Microsoft.
I don't think it is necessarily the ninth inning with two outs and a
full count; Borland is a strong company and the possibility of a
turnaround can't be ignored (I, for one, wouldn't have the guts to
short them at this point), but they're at least at the seventh inning
stretch and they'd better get in gear fast if they hope to survive.
/jim
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Another fact to be considered is that MicroSoft might get slapped with
anti-trust laws some time real soon, especially when NT takes off.
It seems like they are getting too greedy for their own good.
If anti-trust suits succeed in court (there is no guarantee of that
given IBM has been able to fend off most effectively in the last 25 years -
but lost their monopolies by being too big and too stupid.),
Borland could be a big winner. If MicroSoft plays hardball too much
expect Borland to file a couple of these suits themselves.
In the long run, Borland may be a winner!
Nari
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