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Conference nyoss1::market_investing

Title:Market Investing
Moderator:2155::michaud
Created:Thu Jan 23 1992
Last Modified:Thu Jun 05 1997
Last Successful Update:Fri Jun 06 1997
Number of topics:1060
Total number of notes:10477

114.0. "Reading Value Line" by SMOGGY::HESSE (DR. DEC 32 bit NEUROSURGEON) Fri Mar 20 1992 00:49

	   <another beginner looking for the meaning of life>

	In my quest to learn enough about the stock market not to be
too dangerous, I've been trying learn how to analyze some of the 
information presented in the 'Value Line'. (I chose Value Line,
because it's readily available in most libraries, and is often quoted
by news services and analysts).

	There's more information here than I know what to do with, or
even understand. I'm usually overwhelmed by the number of stock available,
each of which has some good points and some bad. Perhaps some of the more 
experienced Gurus could help out the beginners with a lesson or two on how 
to read it.

	For example, assuming you just got a hot tip on a stock, you
look it up in the Value Line.

	What's the first thing you look at?

	What makes a particular entry good or bad?

	Are there any "Red Flags" that immediately tell you to loose 
	interest in this stock?

	Do you use some sort of check list of things to look at?

	How do you use it to decide to Buy?, Sell?, Ignore? the stock.

	(more specific questions to follow as they arise)
-Bill
T.RTitleUserPersonal
Name
DateLines
114.1Let's Start with the ChartSMOGGY::HESSEDR. DEC 32 bit NEUROSURGEONFri Mar 20 1992 00:5121
	In addition to the price history, there are 2 lines plotted on 
the chart at the top of the page whose meaning isn't readily apparent.

1) a dotted line labeled "Relative price strength" that seems to track
   the price at some percentage below the price.

2) a solid line labeled "N.N x 'cash flow' p sh". (where N.N is some
   number usually between 5.0 and 12.0). this one turns into a dashed
   line about a year back, and is projected a year or so into the
   future. On some stocks it's a fairly smooth line, on others it
   swings radically above and below the price line. by the shape of
   the curve, it seems to be plotted annually rather than monthly.

	What do these plots mean?  

	How are they used to evaluate a stock?

-Bill

	
114.2VMSDEV::HALLYBFish have no concept of fireFri Mar 20 1992 11:3016
    0) Start with "Capital Structure".  A company that has a lot of debt will
    usually have trouble in recessions and will do better in expansions.
    
    1) "Relative price strength" looks at the stock vs. the VL composite index.
    An increasing price strength is good news, until it starts decreasing.
    
    2) Broadly speaking, you want the cash flow multiplier to be as low as
    possible.  This indicates the company is moving products/services. 
    I think you also want this line to be moving up faster than the price,
    indicating an improving situation.  Multiplier values are first a
    function of the industry, so don't use this to compare across industries.
    
    Remember the Value Line mutual funds are rarely the head of any pack,
    so don't go overboard on their ranking system.
    
      John
114.3A trial subsciption may be what you needed.REGENT::LAIThu Mar 26 1992 15:3718
    If you do a trial subscription for 10 weeks ($60 or so), you will get a 
    video tape shows you how great it is, a manual tells you how their ranking
    system works, a collections of last 10 issues of value line so you can add
    new issues to it. And during subscirption period every week you will receive
    value line outlook a news letter, a summry of all stock, and a new issues 
    to replace one of the 13 old issues.  By
    the end of the trial subscription you have a whole set of 1700 stocks
    with 10 years of historical data both fundamental and technical,
    weighted more than 10 lb. Really a bargain. 
    
    Trial subscription is offered to  household once every two year, so after
    your try subscription ended you can save some money going back to your 
    libery . By the time, you shold have a pretty good idea about what you
    are looking for. 
    
    I have been doing so for the last couple years, it is how I get
    my feet wet in the investing. 
    
114.4$60 might be a sound investmentSMOGGY::HESSEDR. DEC 32 bit NEUROSURGEONMon Apr 06 1992 23:2012
    
    I've seen the adds, and thought about doing just that. I was a bit
    hesitant, because of the huge number of mailing lists I seem to
    get on every time I call an 800 number. But, the vidio tape and
    instructions might be worth the price.
    
    In .0 I was sort of hoping for a kind of check list of things to
    look for / compare to thin out the number of choices somewhat.
    in particular anything that should prompt me to put a stock
    in the ignore catagory.
    
    -Bill
114.5BOXORN::HAYSOf what is and what should never be...Tue Apr 07 1992 04:1913
RE:.4 by SMOGGY::HESSE "DR. DEC 32 bit NEUROSURGEON" 

> in particular anything that should prompt me to put a stock in the ignore 
> catagory.

About the only thing I know of is bankruptcy with the bonds selling below
50...  The stock is probably worthless,  ignore it.

Anything else,  it depends.  What are your goals?  How much risk?  What is
going on in the world?


Phil