Conference nyoss1::market_investing

    Wal_Mart agreed to greatly expand its partnership with Mexican retailer
    Cifra by opening more stores in Mexico, with plans to operate at least
    30 outlets there by the end of 1993.
    

Cifra was selling for $1.90 on Thur Jun 11.

Cifra went down to $1.58 - $1.65 (bid).

A majority of Mexico funds went down. Telefonos De Mexico fell (TMX) $3.50.
The reason behind all this is because of uncertainty of Perot becoming
president and Perot's negative attitude towards free-trade.

I am purchasing Cifra in blocks of 200 to average in.

Does anyone know if the free-trade fails will Cifra or TMX be
a lot more of a risky investment???

    
    
    	Question from rookie.....
    
    	Can I call Schwab and buy CIFRA, or must I go about it some
    	other way?
    
    	

    
    You can buy CIFRA from any brooker.
    
    peter

    Could one of the CIFRA bulls state their case in summary?
    
    Thanks,
    John

>    Could one of the CIFRA bulls state their case in summary?
    
Sure.  It's an excellent play on the improving Mexican economy which under
President Salinas (a Harvard educated economist) has opened up Mexico
to foreign capital and trade.   Inflation is being brought under control -
from 159% in 1987 to roughly 15% currently.  The large government budget
deficit has been eliminated.  U.S. industry has been moving to Mexico
in a big way....for cheap labor and a jump start on the possible North
American Free Trade Agreement.  

All this results in a growing affluent middle class which has an increasing
amount of disposable income to spend at Mexico's largest retailer...CIFRA.
CIFRA will approach $3 billion U.S. in sales this year.  They are growing
very rapidly (30-50% annual sales growth).   They do an excellent job at
running their stores (with extraordinarily high inventory turnover).
Their discount warehouse stores produce up to twice the sales per square
foot of an average Kmart.  They have remained consistently profitable 
(even during the bad years for Mexico).  And finally, they are debt-free!

Other factors:  As you have read, a strategic management agreement with
Wal-Mart has evolved into a joint venture for the two companies.  Although
different accounting standards apply between the two countries, it still
appears safe to say that CIFRA trades at a cheaper P/E than Wal-Mart and
yet CIFRA appears to have even better growth prospects than the largest
U.S. retailer.  The last kicker is the possibility of a NYSE listing
for CIFRA which would give it more visibility.

    
    Given that .6 says that cifra was at $1.90 on 11-Jun and -.2 says
    it is recently below $1.60, why is there so much ongoing interest
    in cifra? 

    
    If I buy CIFRA adrs, am I buying CIFRA A, B, or C?
    
    

    
    You are buying CIFRA B.
    
    Peter

    Any new news on CIFRA? It was do to be added the the stock market
    listings for more visability this summer some time. Does anyone know if
    it has or will it be inthe near future.
    
    I own CIFRA B adr's I might be interested in purchasing more if all is
    going well.
    
    Thanks for any updates
    
    Frank

    
    They were at/about $1.80 shr earlier this week.  Came back from down
    around $1.4X a few weeks back.
    

Re: .17
>    Any new news on CIFRA? It was do to be added the the stock market
>    listings for more visability this summer some time. Does anyone know if
>    it has or will it be inthe near future.
    
This last spring, almost every large Mexican company was probably toying 
with the idea of a U.S. offering and a concurrent listing on the NYSE
(following in the steps of Telmex).  Some did...Vitro, EmpressICA.
During the summer, the Mexican government expressed concern with the
rapidity and size of the offerings and basically used their influence 
to throw a cold shower on everything.

It'll probably happen someday, but I wouldn't think it would happen during
the next 12 months.  For now, CIFRA will enjoy its status as a widely
followed "penny stock".

    CIFRA  -  Quote on 1/29/93   $2.25
     

    I guess I got ahead of myself the title for the last reply should be as
    fallows.
    
    Quote 1/29/93 CIFRA

    Re .20
    Where did you get that quote from? It closed on the Mexican stock
    market at 6.05 on Friday and the peso is around 0.321 and that puts it 
    below $2.

    Curios
    	Peter

    Got the quote from my broker.
    
    Frank

    
    Well,
    
    10 months later I decided that not much is happening and got out at
    $2/share. 
    Now watch it take off ;-)
    
    Peter

	Any speculation on the effect of NAFTA passing on CIFRA?
	What is the stock currently trading at? Where is it listed and under
	what symbol?

    
    It isn't listed since it trades on the pink sheets. It traded yesterday
    at about 8.30 something New pesos. I sold a while back when it was just
    over 7 and that corresponded to $2 a share. A peso is about .320 of a
    dollar.
    
    For current quote call your broker but I think that the price already
    reflects the outcome...
    
    Peter

    It is listed in pesos in the Foreign Markets section of the WSJ. Two
    flavors trade:
    
    		 Close Previous
    		       Close
    	Cifra B   8.30     8.16
    	Cifra C   7.90     7.80

    I sold my Cifra B ADRs on Monday at 2.55, with a touch of regret
since I do believe this company will be a big winner this decade.
It looks like NAFTA will pass and I'll be wishing I had waited until
Thursday to sell, but I think a significant top is somewhere in this
area and NAFTA passing should bring in the remaining buyers before
the market drops (within the next 3 months I would guess).  Just as 
the breaking of the Berlin Wall caused the German stock market to zoom 
before taking a serious dive, I think the Mexican market will zoom on 
initial euphoria from NAFTA's acceptance and then will sell off as 
people then look ahead and realize that Mexico still poses many 
economic risks.  Also, their stock market, while cheap relative to ours, 
has made HUGE gains over the past few years...and interest rates in 
Mexico have started to rise recently.

    Just to counter my own argument, I will say that most all of the
US investment institutions (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, etc.) remain
very bullish on Mexico with or without NAFTA.  Also, if NAFTA does pass
as expected, many investment managers in the Eastern hemisphere will look 
more kindly on Mexican investments.

NAFTA did pass today (hooray).  CIFRA traded at 2.72 - 2.76 at close of today.
I am hoping that CIFRA will take off as a result of NAFTA.
The only problem is how long to hold onto it.  I was lucky
to purchase 700 shares around 1.50 (it was a speculation more than anything).


I also hold some shares in TMX (Telefonos de Mexico).  TMX
traded at 571/8 today up 1/4.  I too wonder how it will do tomorrow.


Any comments on how long as to hold onto those shares ?

If the Dow Jones has a large selloff, will these stocks to bad also ?

    CIFRA was downgraded today by one of the brokerage houses (I think it
    was Smith, Barney..)